Guidance reaffirmation removes near-term downside risk, but the YoY earnings decline and $2B capital plan cut signal a cautious outlook. Monitor the strategic review outcome and the Kincade/Dixie cost recovery proposed decision due November 2026 for potential catalysts. The data center pipeline growth (12.87 GW) provides a long-term affordability tailwind but is not yet reflected in earnings.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
PG&E reported Q3 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.34 (down from $0.37 YoY) and non-GAAP core EPS of $0.41 (down from $0.50 YoY), a 4.8% beat vs the $0.39 consensus. Full-year 2026 and 2027 non-GAAP core EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $1.64-$1.66 and $1.78-$1.82, respectively. The quarter showed a YoY decline in both GAAP and core earnings driven by a lower authorized CPUC ROE and higher Wildfire Fund expense, partially offset by rate base growth and O&M savings. The reaffirmed guidance and ongoing strategic review provide a stable outlook, but the earnings decline and $2B capital plan reduction temper the positive read-through.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 GAAP diluted EPS $0.34 vs $0.37 YoY; non-GAAP core EPS $0.41 vs $0.50 YoY
- Non-GAAP core EPS of $0.41 beat consensus of $0.39 by 4.8%
- Total operating revenues $6.188B vs $6.250B YoY (down 1.0%)
- Full-year 2026 non-GAAP core EPS guidance reaffirmed at $1.64-$1.66
- Full-year 2027 non-GAAP core EPS guidance reaffirmed at $1.78-$1.82
- Implementing previously announced $2B reduction to 2027 capital plan
- Strategic review advancing with goal of becoming investment-grade
- Data center pipeline at 12,870 MW total; 174 MW energized since 2024
- Weather-normalized ignition rate down 74% vs 2017 baseline
Financial Impact
Q3 GAAP net income $749M vs $823M YoY (-9.0%); non-GAAP core earnings $928M vs $1,142M YoY (-18.7%)
Risk Factors
- Lower CPUC authorized ROE (9.98% vs 10.28%) continues to pressure earnings
- Wildfire Fund expense increased to $141M in Q3 2026 from $86M in Q3 2025
- FERC TO20 settlement potential disallowance of $70M recorded YTD
- Strategic review outcome uncertain; no guarantee of value-unlocking transaction
- California regulatory ranking downgraded to Average/2 by RRA in October 2026
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001004980-26-000056 |
| Document: q326earningspresentation.htm | 0001004980-26-000056 |
| Document: pcg-20261022.htm | 0001004980-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001004980-26-000056-index-headers.html | 0001004980-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001004980-26-000056-index.html | 0001004980-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001004980-26-000056.txt | 0001004980-26-000056 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001004980-26-000056 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | Press Release | $12.98 $12.63 | ▲ +2.70% | ▲ +2.17% | $12.85 (+1.00%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $12.98 $12.63 | ▼ −2.70% | ▼ −2.17% | $12.85 (−1.00%) |
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | Institutional Cluster | $13.13 $13.18 | ▼ −0.38% | ▼ −0.05% | $12.85 (+2.13%) |
Oct 1, 2026 25d ago | Insider Buy | $12.32 $12.35 | ▲ +0.24% | ▼ −0.43% | $12.85 (+4.30%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $12.29 | awaiting T+1 | — | $12.85 (+4.56%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $13.20 $12.94 | ▼ −1.97% | ▼ −3.52% | $12.85 (−2.65%) |
Aug 31, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $13.27 $14.06 | ▲ +5.95% | ▲ +6.64% | $12.85 (−3.17%) |
Jul 24, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $17.60 $17.78 | ▲ +1.02% | ▲ +0.78% | $12.85 (−26.99%) |
Jul 24, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $17.60 $17.78 | ▲ +1.02% | ▲ +0.78% | $12.85 (−26.99%) |
Jun 23, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $17.12 $17.08 | ▼ −0.23% | ▼ −0.38% | $12.85 (−24.94%) |
US Market Status
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