The stock may react positively to the strong 2026 guidance and Automation growth, but investors should monitor whether the company can improve profitability despite margin pressure from e-commerce mix and warrant expenses. The Amazon and Walmart partnerships appear to be driving growth but also creating accounting headwinds.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Ranpak reported Q4 2025 revenue of $111.9 million, up 6.6% YoY, but adjusted EBITDA declined 5.1% to $24.0 million. Full-year revenue grew 7.1% to $395.0 million while adjusted EBITDA fell 5.5% to $79.2 million. The company issued strong 2026 guidance forecasting revenue of $415-$445 million (5.1%-12.7% growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $83.5-$95 million (5.4%-19.9% growth), driven by momentum in its Automation business and strategic partnerships with Amazon and Walmart.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 2025 revenue: $111.9 million (+6.6% YoY)
- Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA: $24.0 million (-5.1% YoY)
- Full-year 2025 revenue: $395.0 million (+7.1% YoY)
- Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA: $79.2 million (-5.5% YoY)
- 2026 guidance: $415-$445 million revenue, $83.5-$95 million adjusted EBITDA
- Automation revenue grew nearly 40% in Q4 2025 (constant currency, ex-warrants)
- Warrant expense reduced Q4 revenue by $2.3 million related to Amazon/Walmart agreements
Financial Impact
Revenue growth of 6.6% in Q4 and 7.1% for full-year 2025, but adjusted EBITDA declined 5.1% in Q4 and 5.5% for full-year due to increased mix from large e-commerce players and warrant expenses. 2026 guidance projects revenue growth of 5.1%-12.7% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 5.4%-19.9%.
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Automation | $13.8M | +35.3% |
Risk Factors
- Continued margin pressure from shift to lower-margin e-commerce customers
- Ongoing impact of warrant expenses related to strategic partnerships
- Global uncertainty, particularly in Middle East, could impact lower end of guidance
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-014998 |
| Document: pack-20260305.htm | 0001628280-26-014998 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-014998-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-014998 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-014998-index.html | 0001628280-26-014998 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-014998.txt | 0001628280-26-014998 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $5.17 $3.68 | ▲ +28.82% | ▲ +31.28% | $3.97 (+23.21%) |
Jun 19, 2026 18w ago | Institutional Cluster | $7.27 $3.81 | ▼ −47.59% | ▼ −49.34% | $3.97 (−45.39%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $5.09 $6.69 | ▲ +31.43% | ▲ +28.33% | $3.97 (−22.00%) |
Apr 24, 2026 26w ago | DEFA14A | $4.12 $7.01 | ▲ +70.15% | ▲ +65.37% | $3.97 (−3.64%) |
Mar 5, 2026 33w ago | 8-K | $4.24 $6.89 | ▲ +62.50% | ▲ +51.20% | $3.97 (−6.37%) |
US Market Status
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