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Institutional Cluster

OSG

OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC
BEARISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed4mo ago
Institutional cluster: 1 buyers, 4 sellers (bearish)
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The near-unanimous institutional selling, especially Citadel's near-exit, is a strong bearish signal for OSG. Monitor for any Q4 2025 13F filings to see if selling continued or reversed. The stock's small $251M market cap means these $10.1M in outflows represent ~4% of market cap — material for a thinly traded name.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
OSG ▼ -10.13% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +10.13% · α vs SPY +14.52% · entry $5.53 → $4.97
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.27%
call -1.27% · α -0.72%
$5.60
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
+1.81%
call -1.81% · α -1.37%
$5.63
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
+9.95%
call -9.95% · α -8.05%
$6.08
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
-10.13%
call +10.13% · α +14.52%
$4.97
settled 7w ago

Executive Summary

Four major institutional investors — D.E. Shaw, Morgan Stanley, Citadel, and RenTech — collectively reduced their OSG positions by $10.1M in Q3 2025, while only T. Rowe Price added a trivial $221.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
distributing
Buy Value
$592.00
Sell Value
$10.1M
Net Flow
-$10.1M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: -$10.1M

▲ Buyers (1)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
T. Rowe PriceADD+35.9%$592.00$221.00

▼ Sellers (4)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
D.E. ShawTRIM-64.6%$2.4M-$1.4M
Morgan StanleyTRIM-57.6%$1.6M-$1.6M
CitadelNEAR_EXIT-84.7%$7.9M-$6.5M
RenTechTRIM-52.1%$1.3M-$577.4K

Key Facts

  • 4 sellers reduced holdings by a net $10.1M; 1 buyer added only $221
  • Citadel cut 84.7% of its position (947K shares), moving from $7.9M to $1.4M
  • D.E. Shaw trimmed 64.6% (216.9K shares), Morgan Stanley trimmed 57.6% (263.5K shares), RenTech trimmed 52.1% (96.9K shares)
  • The only buyer was T. Rowe Price, a mega-passive manager adding 18.7K shares (+35.9%) for a trivial $221 increase
  • All 4 sellers are quant or mega-passive funds, suggesting a systematic or risk-off thesis rather than a fundamental company-specific catalyst

Financial Impact

4 institutional sellers reduced aggregate holdings by $10.1M, while 1 buyer added $221 — net institutional outflow of approximately $10.1M in Q3 2025

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • 13F data has a 45-day lag; positions may have been reversed since quarter-end
  • The cluster is dominated by quant funds (D.E. Shaw, Citadel, RenTech) whose systematic strategies may not reflect fundamental views
  • T. Rowe Price's small add could be passive rebalancing, not conviction

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Surety Insurance
Analyst Consensus
71% bullish (7 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-OSG-2025-Q3
6 reports for OSG
Performance horizon
Filters
Rows
Reports for OSG — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$4.93awaiting T+60——
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 4/10
$5.53 $4.97▼ −10.13%▼ −14.52%—
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$5.53 $4.97▲ +10.13%▲ +14.52%—
May 14, 2026
23w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$5.66 $4.54▼ −19.79%▼ −24.30%—
Apr 10, 2026
28w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$4.19 $6.10▲ +45.58%▲ +36.66%—
Apr 7, 2026
28w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$3.98 $6.34▲ +59.30%▲ +48.84%—
Showing 6 of 6

US Market Status

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Report published Jun 11, 2026