Revenue miss and EPS miss relative to consensus may pressure the stock near-term, but affirmed guidance and regulatory progress provide support. Watch for rate case outcomes in Oklahoma and Texas, and monitor ATM utilization for dilution risk. The dividend increase is modest and expected.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
ONE Gas reported Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $2.04 (missed consensus $2.13 by 4.2%) on revenue of $831.7M, down 11% YoY due to historically warm weather. The company affirmed its 2026 guidance and increased the quarterly dividend by 1.5% to $0.68, while also noting a $225M ATM equity offering. Declining revenue and an EPS miss temper the positive EPS growth and dividend increase, resulting in a mixed outlook.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS $2.04 vs $1.98 YoY (+3.0%); Adjusted diluted EPS $2.11 vs $1.99 (+6.0%)
- Q1 2026 revenue $831.7M vs $935.2M YoY (-11.1%)
- GAAP EPS missed consensus of $2.13 by 4.2%
- 2026 GAAP guidance affirmed: net income $294M-$302M, EPS $4.65-$4.77
- Quarterly dividend increased to $0.68 from $0.67 ($2.72 annualized)
- In February 2026, entered ATM equity distribution agreement for up to $225M
- Weather was 20.5% warmer than normal, tempering volumes; impact partially offset by weather normalization and new rates
- Operating income rose to $189.6M from $180.5M (+5.0%) due to $27.3M from new rates
- Capital expenditures $169.6M, down from $177.7M in Q1 2025
Financial Impact
Revenue declined $103.5M YoY (-11.1%), GAAP EPS $0.06 below consensus, dividend increased $0.01 QoQ
Risk Factors
- Continued warm weather could further pressure volumes and revenue
- Up to $225M ATM equity offering may dilute existing shareholders
- Regulatory lag in pending rate cases could delay cash flow improvement
- Lower natural gas sales volumes due to weather normalization mechanisms may not fully offset
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001587732-26-000019 |
| Document: ogs-20260504.htm | 0001587732-26-000019 |
| Document: 0001587732-26-000019-index-headers.html | 0001587732-26-000019 |
| Document: 0001587732-26-000019-index.html | 0001587732-26-000019 |
| Document: 0001587732-26-000019.txt | 0001587732-26-000019 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001587732-26-000019 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $71.66 $78.36 | ▲ +9.35% | ▲ +9.38% | $78.32 (+9.29%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $79.25 $79.95 | ▲ +0.88% | ▲ +1.48% | $78.32 (−1.17%) |
Jul 8, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $78.83 $79.62 | ▲ +1.00% | ▼ −1.24% | $78.32 (−0.65%) |
May 26, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $81.35 $78.63 | ▼ −3.34% | ▼ −1.44% | $78.32 (−3.72%) |
May 12, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $83.95 $76.09 | ▼ −9.36% | ▼ −8.75% | $78.32 (−6.71%) |
May 4, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $86.69 $77.47 | ▼ −10.64% | ▼ −15.59% | $78.32 (−9.66%) |
May 1, 2026 25w ago | DEFA14A | $88.82 $76.02 | ▼ −14.41% | ▼ −20.06% | $78.32 (−11.82%) |
Apr 7, 2026 28w ago | 8-K | $89.83 $86.69 | ▼ −3.50% | ▼ −12.04% | $78.32 (−12.81%) |
Feb 24, 2026 34w ago | 8-K | $85.77 $85.22 | ▼ −0.64% | ▲ +4.59% | $78.32 (−8.69%) |
US Market Status
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