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Institutional Cluster

OBE

OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD.
MIXED
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed4mo ago
Institutional cluster: 4 buyers, 2 sellers (mixed)
Actionable Insight ◆ Mixed

The cluster is dominated by quant funds (D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma) adding aggressively, which may signal a quantitative factor or mean-reversion thesis rather than a fundamental catalyst. Monitor for a subsequent 13D filing or earnings catalyst that could explain the conviction. The passive selling is negligible — focus on whether the quant buying continues into Q4.

DirectionMixed
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
OBE ▲ +8.34% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call +8.34% · α vs SPY +3.95% · entry $10.91 → $11.82
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.37%
call +1.37% · α +0.83%
$11.06
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-12.56%
call -12.56% · α -12.99%
$9.54
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
-21.91%
call -21.91% · α -23.80%
$8.52
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
+8.34%
call +8.34% · α +3.95%
$11.82
settled 7w ago

Executive Summary

A mixed institutional cluster in OBE for Q3 2025 shows four buyers (net +$6.6M) led by quant funds D.E. Shaw and Two Sigma, alongside two passive sellers trimming modest positions. The buying is concentrated in active/quant managers, suggesting a catalyst-driven thesis, while the sellers are purely passive rebalancers, weakening the bearish signal.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$11.0M
Sell Value
$1.6M
Net Flow
$6.1M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $6.1M

▲ Buyers (4)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Morgan StanleyADD+83.7%$1.0M$551.0K
D.E. ShawADD+55.1%$3.8M$1.7M
UBSDOUBLED+460.2%$3.2M$2.7M
Two SigmaADD+90.2%$2.9M$1.6M

▼ Sellers (2)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
SchwabTRIM-48.3%$429.0K-$168.9K
BofATRIM-31.6%$1.6M-$315.0K

Key Facts

  • 4 buyers accumulated $6.6M net, led by D.E. Shaw (+$1.7M, +55.1% shares) and Two Sigma (+$1.6M, +90.2% shares)
  • UBS more than quintupled its position (+460.2% shares, +$2.7M), the largest dollar increase
  • 2 sellers (Schwab, BofA) trimmed a combined $484K, both passive/index managers
  • Aggregate current holdings: $11.0M across 6 institutions; net directional change is positive but modest relative to OBE's $747M market cap

Financial Impact

Net institutional buying of approximately $6.1M (buyers added $6.6M, sellers removed $0.5M), representing ~0.8% of OBE's market cap

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have been unwound since quarter-end
  • Quant funds may be trading on short-term factors, not long-term conviction
  • Mixed cluster with passive sellers limits the signal strength

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Analyst Consensus
71% bullish (7 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Energy

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-OBE-2025-Q3
12 reports for OBE
Performance horizon
60% Hit rate @ T+20 3 of 5 directional calls Went positive at some point 3 of 5 best @ T+60▲ +51.25%Jun 23, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for OBE — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$11.25 $11.57▲ +2.84%▲ +3.26%—
Sep 14, 2026
6w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$12.49 $11.22▲ +10.17%▲ +12.43%—
Jul 30, 2026
12w ago
6-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$10.15 $11.81▲ +16.35%▲ +12.39%—
Jul 22, 2026
13w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$10.73 $12.11▲ +12.86%▲ +9.55%—
Jun 23, 2026
17w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$8.02 $10.21▲ +27.31%▲ +25.37%—
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 4/10
$10.91 $8.52▼ −21.91%▼ −23.80%—
Jun 3, 2026
20w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$12.18 $8.01▼ −34.24%▼ −33.24%—
Jun 1, 2026
21w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$12.33 $7.95▼ −35.52%▼ −33.96%—
May 7, 2026
24w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$12.43 $11.06▼ −11.02%▼ −11.05%—
May 7, 2026
24w ago
6-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$12.77 $12.18▼ −4.62%▼ −7.76%—
Showing 10 of 12

US Market Status

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Report published Jun 11, 2026