The persistent decline in Same Store NOI (-2.7% YoY) and rising leverage (72%) suggest continued fundamental weakness. The stock's 45% discount to NAV provides a floor, but the bearish operating trends and reaffirmed guidance for negative Same Store NOI growth in FY2026 offer no near-term catalyst. Monitor Q2 2026 leasing data for signs of stabilization in blended lease trade-outs, which improved from -1.92% in Q1 to -1.2% in April MTD.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
NexPoint Residential Trust reported Q1 2026 AFFO of $0.77 per diluted share, slightly below the $0.84 in Q1 2025 and the Street consensus of $0.56, representing a beat vs consensus. Same Store NOI declined 2.7% YoY, and total revenues were essentially flat at $63.5M. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, which projects continued Same Store NOI decline of -0.5% at the midpoint. The stock trades at a 45% discount to estimated NAV midpoint of $47.70 per share.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 AFFO per diluted share of $0.77 vs $0.84 in Q1 2025 (-8.3% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Core FFO per diluted share of $0.68 vs $0.75 in Q1 2025 (-8.9% YoY)
- Same Store NOI declined 2.7% YoY to $36.7M
- Same Store total revenue declined 2.2% YoY
- Same Store occupancy fell 80 bps YoY to 93.6%
- Total revenues essentially flat at $63.5M vs $63.2M in Q1 2025
- Net loss of $0.27 per diluted share, unchanged from Q1 2025
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: Core FFO midpoint $2.57, Same Store NOI midpoint -0.5%
- Leverage ratio increased to 72% (Total Debt to Market Cap + Debt) from 60% a year ago
- Stock price of $26.36 represents a ~45% discount to estimated NAV midpoint of $47.70
Financial Impact
AFFO per share declined 8.3% YoY to $0.77; Same Store NOI -2.7% YoY; leverage increased to 72%
Risk Factors
- Continued Same Store NOI decline driven by rent compression and elevated supply in key markets
- High leverage (72% debt-to-market cap) limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing risk
- FY2026 guidance midpoint implies Same Store NOI decline of -0.5%, with potential for worse outcomes
- Large supply pipeline in Charlotte (26.3% 3-year growth) and Las Vegas (10.2%) could pressure occupancy
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-183645 |
| Document: nxrt-20260428.htm | 0001193125-26-183645 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-183645-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-183645 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-183645-index.html | 0001193125-26-183645 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-183645.txt | 0001193125-26-183645 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-183645 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27, 2026 today | Press Release | $18.68 | awaiting T+1 | — | $18.37 (−1.66%) |
Oct 5, 2026 22d ago | Insider Buy | $20.18 $19.50 | ▼ −3.37% | ▼ −3.13% | $18.37 (−8.97%) |
Oct 5, 2026 22d ago | SC 13G/A | $18.61 $20.18 | ▲ +8.44% | ▲ +7.89% | $18.37 (−1.29%) |
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | SC 13D/A | $19.84 $19.27 | ▼ −2.87% | ▼ −2.69% | $18.37 (−7.41%) |
Aug 4, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $24.43 $24.76 | ▲ +1.35% | ▲ +1.55% | $18.37 (−24.81%) |
Jul 9, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $27.31 $27.75 | ▲ +1.61% | ▲ +2.38% | $18.37 (−32.74%) |
Jun 9, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $28.56 $28.28 | ▼ −0.98% | ▼ −2.68% | $18.37 (−35.68%) |
Apr 28, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $28.86 $28.27 | ▲ +2.04% | ▲ +2.03% | $18.37 (+36.35%) |
Apr 10, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $26.02 $26.62 | ▲ +2.31% | ▲ +1.10% | $18.37 (−29.40%) |
Mar 20, 2026 31w ago | Insider Cluster | $24.63 $25.15 | ▲ +2.11% | ▲ +1.01% | $18.37 (−25.42%) |
US Market Status
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