The Q2 miss is the headline event, but the Q3 guidance suggests a recovery. Watch the October 26 earnings release for actual Q3 results vs the $5.55-$5.65 range and for any commentary on steel pricing momentum into Q4.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Nucor issued Q3 2026 guidance of $5.55-$5.65 EPS, above the $4.84 reported in Q2 2026 (which missed consensus of $6.20 by 21.9%). The guidance implies a sequential improvement driven by higher steel mill pricing and volumes, but the Q2 miss was significant. Year-to-date capital returns total $1.36B, including 2.03M shares repurchased at ~$247/share in Q3.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.84 missed consensus of $6.20 by 21.9%.
- Q3 2026 guidance of $5.55-$5.65 EPS, above Q2's $4.84 but below the prior-year Q3 2025 EPS of $2.63 (which was a trough).
- Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $5.04, including a $0.20 non-cash benefit from Helion investment revaluation.
- Steel mills segment expected to improve QoQ on higher selling prices and stable volumes, but Q2 included $130M in one-time cash refunds not repeating in Q3.
- Year-to-date capital returns of $1.36B through buybacks and dividends; 2.03M shares repurchased in Q3 at avg $247.04.
- Raw materials segment expected to decline on lower pricing and shipments.
Financial Impact
Q2 EPS miss of 21.9% vs consensus ($4.84 vs $6.20) is a significant negative surprise; Q3 guidance $5.55-$5.65 is above Q2 actual but below the consensus that existed before the Q2 miss.
Risk Factors
- Steel pricing could soften if demand weakens or import competition increases.
- Raw materials segment earnings declining further could weigh on consolidated results.
- The $130M one-time refund benefit in Q2 steel mills will not repeat, creating a tough comp.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-prn-302882443 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26, 2026 today | 8-K | $257.35 | awaiting T+1 | — | $270.54 (+5.13%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | Institutional Cluster | $264.54 $258.06 | ▼ −2.45% | ▼ −1.27% | $270.54 (+2.27%) |
Oct 13, 2026 14d ago | Press Release | $253.80 | awaiting T+1 | — | $270.54 (+6.60%) |
Oct 12, 2026 15d ago | Institutional Cluster | $251.83 $253.80 | ▲ +0.78% | ▲ +0.79% | $270.54 (+7.43%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $247.79 $241.83 | ▼ −2.41% | ▼ −3.96% | $270.54 (+9.18%) |
Sep 17, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $247.79 $241.83 | ▲ +2.41% | ▲ +3.96% | $270.54 (−9.18%) |
Aug 21, 2026 9w ago | S-3ASR | $243.63 $244.64 | ▲ +0.41% | ▲ +0.71% | $270.54 (+11.05%) |
Aug 19, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $248.74 $240.48 | ▼ −3.32% | ▼ −2.48% | $270.54 (+8.77%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $274.74 $272.00 | ▼ −1.00% | ▼ −0.84% | $270.54 (−1.53%) |
Jun 4, 2026 20w ago | Insider Cluster | $262.28 $254.39 | ▼ −3.01% | ▼ −0.41% | $270.54 (+3.15%) |
US Market Status
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