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EFFECT ·Filed May 14, 2026

NP

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 5/10
Horizondays Processed5mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001628
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The rapid effectiveness (2 days after S-1 filing) signals SEC clearance and likely imminent pricing. Watch for the final prospectus (424B4) to confirm pricing and underwriter details. The secondary nature means no capital infusion but creates overhang from insider selling; the concurrent buyback may cushion the impact. Monitor for any lock-up expiration details in the prospectus.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
NP ▲ +13.51% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -13.51% · α vs SPY -9.92% · entry $27.46 → $31.17
Entry = T+0 close
May 14, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.97%
call -1.97% · α -3.19%
$28.00
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-0.69%
call +0.69% · α -0.03%
$27.27
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-0.22%
call +0.22% · α -0.64%
$27.40
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
+13.51%
call -13.51% · α -9.92%
$31.17
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective Neptune Insurance Holdings' S-1 registration (File No. 333-295765) on May 13, 2026, covering a secondary offering of 8,355,615 Class A shares by selling stockholders. The company will not receive proceeds but plans to repurchase 835,561 shares concurrently. This clears the path for insider monetization, creating potential near-term selling pressure.

Key Facts

  • Effectiveness date: May 13, 2026
  • Registration covers 8,355,615 Class A shares in a secondary offering by selling stockholders (Bregal Sagemount, FTV Capital affiliates)
  • Company will not receive any proceeds from the offering
  • Company intends to repurchase 835,561 shares concurrently
  • S-1 filed May 11, 2026; effectiveness followed in 2 days
  • Dual-class structure concentrates ~84% voting power with CEO Trevor Burgess

Financial Impact

Secondary offering of 8.36M shares; no proceeds to company; concurrent repurchase of 0.84M shares provides partial offset. At current market cap of $3.9B, the offering represents approximately 5-7% of float.

dilutionshare countinsider selling

Risk Factors

  • Near-term selling pressure from insider secondary offering
  • No new capital raised for company operations
  • Potential for accelerated selling if lock-up provisions are limited

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service
Analyst Consensus
76% bullish (21 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-001628
Document: 9999999995-26-001628-index.html9999999995-26-001628
Document: 9999999995-26-001628.txt9999999995-26-001628
10 reports for NP
Performance horizon
50% Hit rate @ T+5 2 of 4 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 5 best @ T+60▲ +10.17%Jul 29, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NP — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$28.39awaiting T+5—$28.37 (−0.07%)
Jul 31, 2026
12w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$31.63 $31.17▲ +1.45%▲ +3.48%$28.37 (+10.31%)
Jul 29, 2026
12w ago
144
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$31.66 $32.83▼ −3.70%▼ −0.07%$28.37 (+10.39%)
May 19, 2026
22w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$27.78 $27.91▼ −0.47%▲ +1.33%$28.37 (−2.12%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
424B4
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$28.00 $27.87▲ +0.46%▲ +1.43%$28.37 (−1.32%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$27.46 $27.27▲ +0.69%▼ −0.03%$28.37 (−3.31%)
May 11, 2026
24w ago
S-1
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$28.54 $27.22▼ −4.63%▼ −4.70%$28.37 (−0.60%)
May 11, 2026
24w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$28.54 $27.22▼ −4.63%▼ −4.70%$28.37 (−0.60%)
Apr 22, 2026
26w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$27.18 $25.91▼ −4.67%▼ −6.15%$28.37 (+4.38%)
Apr 17, 2026
27w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$27.66 $26.81▼ −3.07%▼ −3.63%$28.37 (+2.57%)
Showing 10 of 10

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Tue (16h 35m)

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Report published May 14, 2026