Needham's low-accuracy, no-PT downgrade is a weak signal against a bullish consensus and strong institutional buying. The stock's 32% upside to the mean target and heavy short interest (63.3%) suggest potential for a squeeze if earnings or news surprise positively.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Needham double-downgraded Netflix (NFLX) from Buy to Hold on October 21, 2026, without assigning a price target. The firm, with a 50% accuracy rate across 4,312 scored calls and an average return of 4.4%, is now the most bearish among 45 analysts covering the stock. The consensus remains heavily bullish: 43 of 57 ratings are Buy or Strong Buy (75%), 13 Hold (23%), and only 1 Sell (2%). The mean price target of $90.90 implies 32.3% upside from the current $68.69, with a high of $126 and a low of $57. Needham's downgrade is a contrarian outlier against the consensus. Momentum is mixed: 1 upgrade and 2 downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions for the current quarter are slightly positive (3 up, 2 down in 30 days), but the next fiscal year shows 7 downward revisions vs. 1 upward. Insider selling persists, with recent sales by directors and executives, while institutional activity shows large buys from Assenagon (+194.9%) and Ninety One UK (+611.4%). The bottom line: Needham's low-accuracy, no-PT downgrade is a weak signal against a bullish consensus and strong institutional buying.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 57 analysts covering NFLX, 14 are Strong Buy (25%), 29 are Buy (51%), 13 are Hold (23%), 1 is Sell (2%), and 0 are Strong Sell. The consensus is heavily bullish, with 75% of ratings at Buy or Strong Buy.
Mean price target is $90.90, median $90.00, high $126.00, low $57.00. Current price $68.69 implies 32.3% upside to the mean. Needham did not assign a price target, so its view sits below the consensus mean and median.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Needham | downgrade | Hold | — |
| 2026-10-21 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $90.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $125.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Wedbush | maintain | Outperform | $90.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Rosenblatt | maintain | Neutral | $75.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | Keybanc | maintain | Overweight | $85.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $80.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $70.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | TD Cowen | reiterate | Buy | $100.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | Guggenheim | maintain | Buy | $80.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade and 2 downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions: current quarter EPS estimates saw 3 upward revisions in 7 days and 3 in 30 days, with 2 downward in 30 days. Next fiscal year shows 1 upward and 7 downward revisions in 30 days, indicating a slight negative tilt for forward estimates.
Firm Track Record — Needham
Needham accuracy: 50% on 4312 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 10%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | 100% | 2/2 | 14.7% | top tier |
| Macquarie | 100% | 8/8 | 13.2% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 3/3 | 4.6% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 100% | 5/5 | 11% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 100% | 4/4 | 7.1% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 100% | 8/8 | 15.2% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 89% | 8/9 | 13.9% | top tier |
| UBS | 88% | 7/8 | 12.8% | top tier |
| Guggenheim | 86% | 6/7 | 11.8% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 86% | 6/7 | 10.2% | top tier |
Needham has a 50% accuracy rate (2,137 correct out of 4,312 scored) with an average return of 4.4%. This is below the top-tier firms like Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, and Baird (all 100% accuracy on small sample sizes). Among firms with more than 10 scored calls, Keybanc (89%, 8/9) and UBS (88%, 7/8) are top performers. Needham's accuracy is below these top-tier firms but above the low-accuracy firms not listed. The best-performing firm on NFLX by average return is Evercore ISI Group (15.2% on 8 calls).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $0.73 | $0.67 — $0.82 | $13.5B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.94 | $0.87 — $0.99 | $13.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $3.58 | $3.51 — $3.69 | $51.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $3.80 | $3.48 — $4.05 | $56.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: 5 sales in the past 3 months, including director Richard N. Barton (3 sales totaling ~$165K) and executives Spencer Adam Neumann (~$701K) and Gregory K. Peters (~$2M). No insider buys. Congressional trades: 2 buys (Cleo Fields, Byron Donalds) and 2 sells (Cory Booker, Michael McCaul) — small amounts ($1K-$15K each). Institutional changes: large buys from Assenagon (+194.9%, $1.12B), Ninety One UK (+611.4%, $1.15M), and BANQUE PICTET (+38.1%, $42.7M). Vontobel near-exit (-89%, $30.4M). Short interest: 63.3% short ratio on 10.79M shares short vs. 17.05M TRF volume. Insider selling diverges from the bullish analyst consensus, while institutional buying converges with it.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26, 2026 today | 144 | $63.78 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (+0.19%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | Institutional Cluster | $67.05 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (−4.70%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $65.04 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (−1.75%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | 8-K | $65.04 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (−1.75%) |
Sep 29, 2026 27d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+60 | — | — |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+60 | — | — |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | Press Release | $80.32 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (−20.44%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $74.79 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (−14.56%) |
Aug 6, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $74.14 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (−13.81%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $74.20 | awaiting T+60 | — | $63.90 (+13.88%) |
US Market Status
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