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EFFECT ·Filed Jul 16, 2026

MVIS

MICROVISION, INC.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizondays Processed3mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002320
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effective shelf gives MicroVision immediate access to ATM capital and unlocks a massive resale overhang from High Trail. Expect continued downward pressure on the stock as the market prices in near-term dilution. Monitor ATM takedown filings and any conversion notices from High Trail for the next catalyst.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
MVIS ▼ -73.05% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +73.05% · α vs SPY +76.76% · entry $0.2969 → $0.0800
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 16, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.10%
call -0.10% · α -1.09%
$0.2972
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
-7.28%
call +7.28% · α +5.60%
$0.2753
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
-15.35%
call +15.35% · α +18.97%
$0.2513
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-73.05%
call +73.05% · α +76.76%
$0.0800
settled 18d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

MicroVision's shelf registration (S-3, File No. 333-297430) became effective on July 15, 2026. This allows the company to conduct at-the-market (ATM) offerings and permits selling stockholders High Trail entities to resell up to 61,315,970 shares issuable upon conversion of $43M in convertible notes. The effectiveness activates a significant dilution overhang, as the company's precarious financial position (Q1 2026 revenue of $935k, net loss of $25.3M) suggests near-term capital needs.

Key Facts

  • Shelf registration (S-3, File No. 333-297430) declared effective on July 15, 2026.
  • Registration covers up to $42M of common stock for ATM sales through Deutsche Bank, Mizuho, and Craig-Hallum.
  • Also registers up to 61,315,970 shares for resale by High Trail entities upon conversion of $43M in convertible notes.
  • Company receives no proceeds from High Trail resales; dilution overhang is immediate.
  • Q1 2026 revenue was only $935k with a net loss of $25.3M and $32.1M in notes payable against $46.1M cash.

Financial Impact

Potential dilution of up to 61.3M shares from convertible note conversions plus up to $42M in ATM sales; combined could more than double the current share count given a $108M market cap.

dilutionshare countcash position

Risk Factors

  • Immediate dilution from High Trail share resales could depress stock price.
  • ATM sales may accelerate if cash burn continues, further pressuring shares.
  • Low revenue and high net loss raise going-concern risk if capital is not raised.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Electronic Components, NEC
Analyst Consensus
86% bullish (7 analysts)

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002320
Document: 9999999995-26-002320-index.html9999999995-26-002320
Document: 9999999995-26-002320.txt9999999995-26-002320
20 reports for MVIS
Performance horizon
73% Hit rate @ T+20 8 of 11 directional calls Went positive at some point 10 of 11 best @ T+60▲ +72.47%Jun 12, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for MVIS — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$1.31awaiting T+20—$1.24 (−5.73%)
Sep 18, 2026
5w ago
SC 13G
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$1.66 $1.13▼ −31.93%▼ −32.13%$1.24 (−25.60%)
Aug 17, 2026
10w ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$2.14 $1.53▲ +28.50%▲ +26.53%$1.24 (+42.29%)
Aug 10, 2026
11w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$3.72 $1.67▼ −55.11%▼ −54.19%$1.24 (−66.80%)
Jul 16, 2026
14w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.2969 $0.2513▲ +15.35%▲ +18.97%$1.24 (−315.96%)
Jul 9, 2026
15w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 3/10
$0.4000 $0.2173▼ −45.67%▼ −47.91%$1.24 (+208.75%)
Jul 7, 2026
16w ago
DEFA14A / 8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.3779 $0.2437▼ −35.52%▼ −38.68%$1.24 (+226.81%)
Jun 24, 2026
17w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.3113 $0.2753▲ +11.56%▲ +12.24%$1.24 (−296.72%)
Jun 23, 2026
17w ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.3113 $0.2753▲ +11.56%▲ +12.24%$1.24 (−296.72%)
Jun 12, 2026
19w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.3851 $0.3094▲ +19.66%▲ +19.65%$1.24 (−220.70%)
Showing 10 of 20

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Report published Jul 16, 2026