Monitor pass sales trends through the remainder of the selling season — the 12% unit decline may improve if delayed purchasing materializes. Activist Oasis's director nomination adds a catalyst for governance/strategy changes; watch for any 13D amendments or proxy materials. Fiscal 2027 guidance implies a recovery but with margin compression — the key swing factor is snowfall.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Vail Resorts reported Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 results with a significant EPS beat vs consensus, but full-year revenue and EBITDA declined due to historically poor snowfall. Pass sales for the upcoming season are down 12% in units, and fiscal 2027 guidance implies a recovery but with lower margins than originally expected. The filing comes days after activist Oasis Management disclosed a stake and nominated a director candidate, adding governance pressure.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 2026 EPS $-5.34 vs consensus $-5.35 (in-line); full-year EPS $4.12 vs prior year $7.53
- Full-year Resort net revenue $2.832B, down 4.5% YoY; Resort Reported EBITDA $745.7M, down 11.7% YoY
- Pass product unit sales for 2026/2027 season down ~12% vs prior year through Sept 18, 2026
- Fiscal 2027 guidance: Net income $158M-$233M; Resort EBITDA $805M-$865M (midpoint $835M)
- Quarterly dividend maintained at $2.22/share; Net debt 3.9x trailing EBITDA
- Activist Oasis Management filed SC 13D on Sept 16 and an amended filing on Sept 22, disclosing share purchases and a director nomination agreement
Financial Impact
Full-year revenue decline of $131.9M (-4.5%) and EBITDA decline of $98.5M (-11.7%); fiscal 2027 guidance midpoint implies ~12% EBITDA recovery but margins below original fiscal 2026 expectations
Risk Factors
- Continued unfavorable snowfall could further pressure visitation and pass sales
- Activist campaign may escalate into a proxy fight, creating uncertainty
- Elevated leverage (3.9x EBITDA) limits financial flexibility if weather persists
- Pass sales decline concentrated in destination frequency products may not fully recover
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-prn-302891878 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 8-K | $150.54 | awaiting T+5 | — | $149.40 (−0.76%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | PREC14A | $150.54 | awaiting T+5 | — | $149.40 (−0.76%) |
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | DEFA14A | $150.97 $147.07 | ▼ −2.58% | ▼ −2.44% | $149.40 (−1.04%) |
Sep 28, 2026 28d ago | Press Release | $141.29 $145.20 | ▲ +2.77% | ▲ +0.82% | $149.40 (+5.74%) |
Sep 22, 2026 4w ago | SC 13D/A | $136.85 $139.12 | ▼ −1.66% | ▼ −2.85% | $149.40 (−9.17%) |
Sep 16, 2026 5w ago | SC 13D | $140.12 $140.05 | ▼ −0.05% | ▼ −1.87% | $149.40 (+6.62%) |
Sep 11, 2026 6w ago | DEFA14A | $140.09 $139.80 | ▲ +0.21% | ▼ −0.01% | $149.40 (−6.65%) |
Sep 2, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $136.06 $140.09 | ▲ +2.96% | ▲ +4.11% | $149.40 (+9.80%) |
Jun 8, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $131.26 $134.40 | ▼ −2.39% | ▲ +0.02% | $149.40 (−13.82%) |
Apr 23, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $123.43 $122.16 | ▲ +1.03% | ▲ +2.51% | $149.40 (−21.04%) |
US Market Status
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