The revenue miss vs consensus and unchanged full-year guidance suggest limited near-term upside catalyst. Monitor Q4 for any acceleration in Index asset-based fee growth and whether the Sustainability & Climate segment's net sales negative trajectory reverses. The $0.9B remaining buyback authorization provides a floor but is not a growth catalyst.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
MSCI reported Q3 2026 results with operating revenues of $892.0M (+12.4% YoY) and diluted GAAP EPS of $4.86 (+14.4% YoY). Adjusted EPS of $5.11 narrowly beat the $5.09 consensus by 0.3%, while revenue of $892.0M missed the $913.9M consensus by 2.4%. Full-year 2026 guidance was maintained across all major line items except for a slight narrowing of the effective tax rate range and a modest increase in interest expense guidance, signaling a steady-state outlook with no acceleration in fundamentals.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 operating revenues of $892.0M, up 12.4% YoY; organic growth 12.3%
- Diluted GAAP EPS of $4.86, up 14.4% YoY; Adjusted EPS of $5.11, up 14.3% YoY
- Adjusted EPS of $5.11 vs consensus $5.09 (0.3% beat); revenue of $892.0M vs consensus $913.9M (2.4% miss)
- Index segment revenue grew 18.1% YoY; asset-based fees up 24.9% driven by record ETF AUM linked to MSCI indexes
- Full-year 2026 guidance maintained: operating expense $1,535-1,575M, adjusted EBITDA expense $1,340-1,370M, free cash flow $1,485-1,545M
- Total Run Rate of $3.57B, up 12.1% YoY; organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth of 8.7%
- Retention Rate of 95.0%, up from 94.7% in Q3 2025
- Share repurchases of $552.3M in Q3; $0.9B remaining on authorization
- First Street acquisition completed on August 3, 2026 for $122.6M net of cash acquired
Financial Impact
Q3 revenue of $892.0M vs consensus $913.9M (2.4% miss); adjusted EPS $5.11 vs $5.09 (0.3% beat). Full-year guidance unchanged.
Risk Factors
- Revenue missed consensus by 2.4%, which may pressure the stock in the near term
- Sustainability & Climate segment had negative net new recurring subscription sales (-$1.1M) and declining retention rate (91.0% vs 93.6% YoY)
- Interest expense guidance raised to $288-291M from $282-286M, reflecting higher debt levels
- Free cash flow declined 8.9% YoY to $385.4M, partly due to acquisition-related spending
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001408198-26-000054 |
| Document: msci-20261020.htm | 0001408198-26-000054 |
| Document: 0001408198-26-000054-index-headers.html | 0001408198-26-000054 |
| Document: 0001408198-26-000054-index.html | 0001408198-26-000054 |
| Document: 0001408198-26-000054.txt | 0001408198-26-000054 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001408198-26-000054 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | 144 | $615.62 $617.67 | ▲ +0.33% | ▼ −0.38% | $601.75 (−2.25%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | Institutional Cluster | $604.46 $620.24 | ▼ −2.61% | ▼ −3.79% | $601.75 (+0.45%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | 8-K | $591.69 $604.46 | ▲ +2.16% | ▲ +1.63% | $601.75 (+1.70%) |
Sep 4, 2026 7w ago | Insider Buy | $551.39 $554.54 | ▲ +0.57% | ▲ +1.04% | $601.75 (+9.13%) |
Aug 7, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $563.08 $561.71 | ▼ −0.24% | ▲ +0.08% | $601.75 (+6.87%) |
Jul 21, 2026 14w ago | 8-K | $561.74 $570.95 | ▲ +1.64% | ▲ +1.76% | $601.75 (+7.12%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $594.31 $599.12 | ▼ −0.81% | ▼ −0.27% | $601.75 (−1.25%) |
Apr 21, 2026 27w ago | 8-K | $592.49 $605.05 | ▲ +2.12% | ▲ +1.10% | $601.75 (+1.56%) |
Mar 11, 2026 32w ago | DEFA14A | $546.55 $534.21 | ▼ −2.26% | ▼ −0.77% | $601.75 (+10.10%) |
US Market Status
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