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EFFECT ·Filed Apr 15, 2026

MBRX

Moleculin Biotech, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonimmediate Processed6mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001181
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Traders should anticipate potential downward pressure on MBRX stock price as selling stockholders may begin offloading shares immediately. The 119% share overhang creates substantial near-term supply that could overwhelm demand, particularly given the company's small $13M market cap.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
MBRX ▼ -6.56% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +6.56% · α vs SPY +14.69% · entry $2.44 → $2.28
Entry = T+0 close
Apr 15, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.64%
call +1.64% · α +1.89%
$2.40
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
+2.46%
call -2.46% · α -0.82%
$2.50
settled 6mo ago
T+20d
-4.10%
call +4.10% · α +10.14%
$2.34
settled 6mo ago
T+60d
-6.56%
call +6.56% · α +14.69%
$2.28
settled 4mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Moleculin Biotech's S-3 shelf registration became effective on April 14, 2026, allowing selling stockholders to immediately resell up to 6,367,956 shares of common stock issued in a February 2026 warrant inducement offer. This resale potential represents approximately 119% of currently outstanding shares, creating a significant overhang that could pressure the stock price.

Key Facts

  • S-3 shelf registration (File No. 333-294686) became effective April 14, 2026
  • Registration covers resale of 6,367,956 shares by selling stockholders
  • Shares were issued in February 2026 warrant inducement offer
  • Resale shares represent approximately 119% of currently outstanding shares
  • No proceeds to the company; shares are being sold by existing holders

Financial Impact

Potential dilution of 119% of outstanding shares through immediate resale by selling stockholders

dilutionshare countstock price

Risk Factors

  • Significant share dilution from immediate resale of 6.37M shares
  • Downward pressure on stock price due to oversupply in the market
  • Investor confidence erosion from large shareholder exit

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-001181
Document: 9999999995-26-001181-index.html9999999995-26-001181
Document: 9999999995-26-001181.txt9999999995-26-001181
30 reports for MBRX
Performance horizon
42% Hit rate @ T+20 5 of 12 directional calls Went positive at some point 8 of 15 best @ T+60▲ +78.91%May 15, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for MBRX — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$6.19awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+14.46%)
Oct 16, 2026
10d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.2804awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+2426.75%)
Oct 9, 2026
16d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.4139awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+1611.77%)
Oct 5, 2026
21d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.4766awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+1386.57%)
Sep 29, 2026
27d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$0.5264awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+1245.93%)
Sep 29, 2026
27d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 6/10
$0.5264awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+1245.93%)
Sep 28, 2026
28d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$0.5690awaiting T+20—$7.09 (+1145.17%)
Sep 25, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.6016 $6.50▲ +980.45%▲ +981.93%$7.09 (+1077.69%)
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$0.5279 $6.31▲ +1095.30%▲ +1094.61%$7.09 (+1242.11%)
Sep 18, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.5202awaiting T+20—$7.09 (−1261.98%)
Showing 10 of 30

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Tue (16h 38m)

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Report published Apr 15, 2026