SecBot SecBot
EFFECT ·Filed Jun 3, 2026

MBAI

Check-Cap Ltd
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed4mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001837
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The shelf is now live, meaning ARC Group can immediately resell shares. Each $1M drawn at a 5% discount could pressure the stock by ~8% of current market cap in dilution. Monitor for Advance Notice filings (8-K Item 3.02) to gauge the pace of draws. With 0% analyst bullish sentiment and $12M market cap, this is a high-risk structure — expect persistent selling pressure as ARC unwinds positions.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
MBAI ▲ +329.41% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -329.41% · α vs SPY -326.91% · entry $1.53 → $6.57
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 3, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.96%
call +1.96% · α +2.36%
$1.50
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-13.07%
call +13.07% · α +9.25%
$1.33
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-25.49%
call +25.49% · α +24.49%
$1.14
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
+329.41%
call -329.41% · α -326.91%
$6.57
settled 2mo ago

Price Chart

Loading chart...

Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective Check-Cap Ltd's F-1 registration statement (File No. 333-293109) on June 2, 2026, enabling the resale of up to 2,267,857 ordinary shares by ARC Group International Ltd. The underlying Purchase Agreement allows Check-Cap to draw up to $30M in equity financing over three years via advances at a 5% discount to VWAP, creating persistent dilution overhang for a micro-cap with a $12M market cap.

Key Facts

  • EFFECT notice for F-1 registration statement 333-293109, declared effective June 2, 2026.
  • Registers 2,267,857 ordinary shares for resale by ARC Group International Ltd.
  • Underlying Purchase Agreement (Dec 17, 2025) gives Check-Cap right to sell up to $30M in shares to ARC over 3 years.
  • Advance Shares are sold at 95% of the lowest closing VWAP during the pricing period.
  • Check-Cap's market cap is approximately $12M, making the $30M total commitment ~2.5x current market cap.
  • The selling shareholder ARC Group is an underwriter under Section 2(a)(11) of the Securities Act.
  • Commitment Fee Shares of 267,857 were issued upon signing (1.5% of Total Commitment Amount).

Financial Impact

Potential dilution of up to ~250% of current market cap (up to $30M total vs $12M market cap), with shares sold at ~5% discount to market.

dilutionshare countmarket cap

Risk Factors

  • Massive potential dilution: up to $30M of shares vs $12M market cap, creates ~2.5x overhang.
  • ARC Group sells at a 5% discount to VWAP, incentivizing rapid turnover.
  • No shareholder approval required for foreign private issuer, so Exchange Cap does not apply.
  • Zero buy-side analyst support (0% bullish) suggests limited institutional demand to absorb supply.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
X-Ray Apparatus & Tubes & Related Irradiation Apparatus
Analyst Consensus
0% bullish (6 analysts)

Investment Themes

Healthcare & Medical Devices

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-001837
Document: 9999999995-26-001837-index.html9999999995-26-001837
Document: 9999999995-26-001837.txt9999999995-26-001837
16 reports for MBAI
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+5 5 of 5 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 5 best @ T+20▲ +59.78%Sep 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for MBAI — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 22, 2026
5d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$2.05awaiting T+5—$1.90 (−7.32%)
Sep 29, 2026
28d ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$3.75 $3.24▼ −13.60%▼ −15.55%$1.90 (−49.33%)
Sep 22, 2026
4w ago
SC 13D
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$5.47 $3.54▼ −35.28%▼ −34.61%$1.90 (−65.27%)
Sep 22, 2026
4w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$5.47 $3.54▲ +35.28%▲ +34.61%$1.90 (+65.27%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$6.33 $5.47▼ −13.59%▼ −15.41%$1.90 (−69.98%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$6.33 $5.47▼ −13.59%▼ −15.41%$1.90 (−69.98%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Press Release
MIXED ★ 7/10
$6.61 $6.37▼ −3.71%▼ −3.56%$1.90 (−71.26%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$6.58 $6.50▲ +1.22%▲ +1.32%$1.90 (+71.12%)
Aug 27, 2026
8w ago
424B4
MIXED ★ 7/10
$6.57 $6.50▼ −1.07%▼ −1.33%$1.90 (−71.08%)
Aug 26, 2026
8w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$6.78 $6.48▲ +4.42%▲ +4.30%$1.90 (+71.98%)
Showing 10 of 16

US Market Status

Market Open — Closes in 59m

Subscribe to SecBot

Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence

Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.

Create a free account Live analysis, Telegram alerts, watchlists and the MCP server for subscribers
Report published Jun 3, 2026