The FY2027 guidance implies modest top-line acceleration but no step-change in profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA guided only 2-8% above FY2026. The elevated net debt ($1.77B) and declining same-store sales suggest limited near-term catalysts. Monitor Q1 FY2027 waterpark contribution and same-store sales trajectory for confirmation of the 'coiled spring' thesis.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Lucky Strike Entertainment reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $303.9M (+0.9% YoY), slightly below the $311.2M consensus, with a GAAP net loss of $26.2M. Same-store revenue declined 2.5%, and Adjusted EBITDA fell to $74.1M from $88.7M a year ago. The company issued FY2027 guidance for 3-5% revenue growth ($1.28B-$1.31B) and Adjusted EBITDA of $340M-$360M, signaling a modest recovery but not a transformative inflection.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 FY2026 total revenue $303.9M, +0.9% YoY (vs $311.2M consensus)
- Same-store revenue declined 2.5% YoY in Q4
- GAAP net loss of $26.2M in Q4 (vs net loss of $74.7M in Q4 2025)
- Adjusted EBITDA $74.1M in Q4 vs $88.7M in prior year
- FY2026 net loss $35.8M vs net loss of $10.0M in FY2025
- FY2027 guidance: revenue $1.28B-$1.31B (3-5% growth), Adjusted EBITDA $340M-$360M
- Net debt increased to $1.77B from $1.26B a year ago
- Quarterly dividend declared at $0.06 per share
Financial Impact
Q4 revenue $303.9M vs consensus $311.2M; FY2027 revenue guidance $1.28B-$1.31B implies 3-5% growth; Adjusted EBITDA guidance $340M-$360M vs FY2026 $333.2M
Risk Factors
- Same-store revenue declining 2.5% in Q4 and 0.2% for FY2026 signals underlying demand weakness
- Net debt increased to $1.77B, up 40% YoY, raising leverage concerns
- FY2027 guidance is intentionally prudent and may disappoint if macro headwinds persist
- Capital expenditures guided to ~$90M, down from peak, but free cash flow generation remains unproven
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-059178 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-059178-index.html | 0001628280-26-059178 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-059178.txt | 0001628280-26-059178 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-059178 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
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| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 4d ago | DEFA14A | $4.18 | awaiting T+60 | — | $4.37 (+4.55%) |
Oct 23, 2026 4d ago | DEF 14A | $4.18 | awaiting T+60 | — | $4.37 (−4.55%) |
Sep 11, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $5.64 | awaiting T+60 | — | $4.37 (−22.52%) |
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Jun 9, 2026 20w ago | Insider Cluster | $7.92 $6.24 | ▼ −21.21% | ▼ −25.03% | $4.37 (−44.82%) |
Jun 8, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $7.92 $6.24 | ▼ −21.21% | ▼ −25.03% | $4.37 (−44.82%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $7.66 $6.70 | ▲ +12.53% | ▲ +14.59% | $4.37 (+42.95%) |
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