The EPS and revenue miss vs consensus is notable, but the raised guidance and record backlog signal strong underlying demand. The F-35 Lot 20 contract risk is a material overhang — monitor for resolution in coming quarters. The stock may trade on the guidance raise vs the headline miss.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Lockheed Martin reported Q3 2026 EPS of $7.97, missing consensus estimates of $8.56 by 6.9%, while revenue of $20.7B also missed the $22.48B consensus. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance for sales, EPS, and free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, and reported a record backlog of $292B. The EPS miss is partially explained by lower F-35 deliveries (43 vs 46 YoY) and an F-35 Lot 20 contract risk disclosure, but the raised guidance and record backlog provide a positive counterweight.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 EPS $7.97 vs consensus $8.56 (-6.9% miss)
- Q3 2026 revenue $20.7B vs consensus $22.48B (-7.9% miss)
- Revenue grew 11% YoY to $20.7B from $18.6B
- Net earnings $1.845B vs $1.619B YoY (+14%)
- Record backlog of $292.0B, up 27% from Q2 2026
- Raised FY2026 guidance: sales $80-82B (from $79.75-81.75B), EPS $30.35-30.75 (from $29.95-30.65), FCF $7.8-8.0B (from $7.0-7.2B)
- F-35 deliveries declined to 43 from 46 YoY
- F-35 Lots 20-22 contract risk: costs exceeding current authorization, may negatively impact future results
- Free cash flow $3.0B vs $3.3B YoY (-9%)
- Dividend raised for 24th consecutive year
Financial Impact
EPS miss of ~$0.59 vs consensus; revenue miss of ~$1.78B vs consensus; guidance raised across all key metrics
Risk Factors
- F-35 Lots 20-22 contract negotiations with U.S. Government — costs exceeding current authorization
- Lower F-35 deliveries (43 vs 46) could pressure near-term revenue
- Free cash flow declined 9% YoY to $3.0B
- Defense budget uncertainty and potential continuing resolutions
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-066780 |
| Document: lmt-20261022.htm | 0001628280-26-066780 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066780-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-066780 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066780-index.html | 0001628280-26-066780 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066780.txt | 0001628280-26-066780 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-066780 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26, 2026 today | GOVT-CONTRACT | $635.08 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+0.02%) |
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | 144 | $604.07 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+5.15%) |
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $589.91 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+7.68%) |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $604.18 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+5.13%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | Press Release | $532.64 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+19.26%) |
Oct 14, 2026 12d ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $532.64 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+19.26%) |
Oct 13, 2026 13d ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $522.23 | awaiting T+20 | — | $635.20 (+21.63%) |
Sep 21, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $522.34 $548.71 | ▲ +5.05% | ▲ +5.61% | $635.20 (+21.61%) |
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $524.19 $509.59 | ▼ −2.79% | ▼ −4.65% | $635.20 (+21.18%) |
US Market Status
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