The strong EPS beat and accelerating e-Commerce growth (41% GMV, 58% revenue) are positive catalysts, but flat net income and prior-quarter Street EPS misses warrant caution. Monitor the Q2 2026 release for sustained e-Commerce momentum and margin expansion. The $600M note issuance strengthens the balance sheet but adds leverage.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Kaspi.kz reported Q1 2026 EPS of $1,457.68, an 18.8% beat vs consensus of $1,226.71, on revenue of KZT 1.1 trillion ($2.3B), up 31% YoY. e-Commerce GMV surged 41% on a constant-currency pro-forma basis, and the Board recommended a KZT 850/ADS dividend (64% payout). However, net income was flat YoY (-1%), and the Street-convention EPS history shows a miss in the prior two quarters, tempering the headline beat.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 EPS of $1,457.68 beat consensus of $1,226.71 by 18.8%
- Revenue of KZT 1.1 trillion ($2.3B) grew 31% YoY
- e-Commerce GMV grew 41% YoY on constant-currency pro-forma basis to KZT 1.3 trillion ($2.6B)
- e-Commerce revenue grew 58% YoY to KZT 394 billion ($824M); VAS (advertising + delivery) revenue up 73%
- Net income flat YoY at KZT 252 billion ($526M), down 1%
- Board recommended quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS (64% payout ratio)
- Post-quarter, issued $600M 5.900% five-year Notes
- Full-year 2026 guidance reiterated
Financial Impact
EPS beat of 18.8% and 31% revenue growth, but net income flat YoY; dividend yield ~2% at current price
Risk Factors
- Net income flat YoY despite 31% revenue growth, indicating margin compression
- Prior two quarters missed Street consensus EPS by 9.7% and 36.9%
- Türkiye expansion (50% of e-Commerce GMV) carries geopolitical and FX risk
- Cost of risk at 0.7% could rise if credit conditions deteriorate
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3291720 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $97.15 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−6.28%) |
Aug 26, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $105.01 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−13.29%) |
Aug 21, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $106.46 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−14.47%) |
Aug 19, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $103.70 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−12.20%) |
Aug 12, 2026 10w ago | 6-K | $99.55 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−8.54%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 6-K | $94.00 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−3.14%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $94.00 | awaiting T+60 | — | $91.05 (−3.14%) |
Jun 24, 2026 17w ago | Press Release | $85.80 $97.43 | ▲ +13.55% | ▲ +10.72% | $91.05 (+6.12%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | 6-K | $80.56 $107.21 | ▲ +33.08% | ▲ +29.82% | $91.05 (+13.02%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Press Release | $80.56 $107.21 | ▲ +33.08% | ▲ +29.82% | $91.05 (+13.02%) |
US Market Status
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