The stock may react positively to the dividend announcement and accelerating Türkiye growth, but investors should monitor 2026 margin pressure from higher taxes and reserve requirements in Kazakhstan. The 5% Adjusted EBITDA guidance suggests modest near-term profitability growth despite strong top-line momentum.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Kaspi.kz reported solid FY 2025 results with 19% revenue and 10% net income growth, in line with guidance. The company announced a proposed quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, signaling confidence in cash flow despite headwinds from higher taxes and reserve requirements in Kazakhstan. Progress in Türkiye, particularly at Hepsiburada, showed accelerating order growth and engagement, though profitability is being intentionally managed to breakeven to fuel expansion.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- FY 2025 revenue up 19% YoY, net income up 10% YoY; underlying net income grew 18%
- 4Q 2025 revenue up 15% YoY, but net income only up 1% due to regulatory headwinds
- Proposed quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval
- Hepsiburada purchase growth accelerated to +19% YoY in 4Q 2025 from -11% in 1Q 2025
- Engaged consumers at Hepsiburada up 29% YoY in 4Q 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA for Hepsiburada was around breakeven in 4Q 2025
- Kazakhstan corporate tax rate increase to 25% expected to raise consolidated tax rate by ~200 bps in 2026
- 2026 Adjusted EBITDA growth guidance set at ~5% YoY, including Türkiye for the first time
Financial Impact
Revenue growth remains strong at 19% for FY 2025, but bottom-line growth slowed to 10% (1% in 4Q) due to tax and regulatory headwinds. Dividend resumption signals financial stability, though $300M investment in Rabobank A.Ş. and breakeven EBITDA in Türkiye imply continued capital deployment.
Risk Factors
- Bottom-line growth in Kazakhstan expected to lag top-line due to higher taxes and reserve requirements
- Hepsiburada is being managed at EBITDA breakeven, delaying profitability in Türkiye
- 2026 guidance does not assume interest rate cuts, limiting near-term upside
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3247211 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $97.15 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−6.39%) |
Aug 26, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $105.01 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−13.39%) |
Aug 21, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $106.46 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−14.57%) |
Aug 19, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $103.70 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−12.30%) |
Aug 12, 2026 10w ago | 6-K | $99.55 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−8.64%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 6-K | $94.00 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−3.25%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $94.00 | awaiting T+60 | — | $90.94 (−3.25%) |
Jun 24, 2026 17w ago | Press Release | $85.80 $97.43 | ▲ +13.55% | ▲ +10.72% | $90.94 (+6.00%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | 6-K | $80.56 $107.21 | ▲ +33.08% | ▲ +29.82% | $90.94 (+12.89%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Press Release | $80.56 $107.21 | ▲ +33.08% | ▲ +29.82% | $90.94 (+12.89%) |
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