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EFFECT ·Filed Sep 10, 2026

KRP

Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP
BEARISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002924
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effective shelf opens the door for selling unitholders to monetize a large block of shares. Monitor for a prospectus supplement or takedown announcement, which would signal imminent selling. The overhang may cap upside in the near term even if the company's fundamentals are stable.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
KRP ▲ +0.40% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -0.40% · α vs SPY +1.73% · entry $15.10 → $15.16
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Latest observation: T+31 -10.46% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 10, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.32%
call +1.32% · α +2.18%
$14.90
settled 7w ago
T+5d
-2.98%
call +2.98% · α +2.48%
$14.65
settled 6w ago
T+20d
+0.40%
call -0.40% · α +1.73%
$15.16
settled 19d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 5w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Kimbell Royalty Partners' S-3 shelf registration (File No. 333-298623) became effective on September 9, 2026. This allows the selling unitholders to resell up to 6,929,000 common units issued in a June 2026 private placement related to a mineral and royalty asset acquisition. The company receives no proceeds from these sales, but the overhang of a large secondary block now has a clear path to market, which may pressure the stock near-term.

Key Facts

  • S-3 shelf registration became effective on September 9, 2026 (File No. 333-298623).
  • Covers the resale of up to 6,929,000 common units by selling unitholders.
  • Units were issued in a June 22, 2026 private placement tied to a mineral/royalty asset purchase agreement dated May 18, 2026.
  • Kimbell Royalty Partners will not receive any proceeds from the resale of these units.
  • The shelf was filed on June 26, 2026, and became effective ~76 days later.

Financial Impact

Up to 6,929,000 common units eligible for resale; no proceeds to the company. At current market cap of ~$1.7B, this represents a meaningful potential overhang.

dilutionshare count

Risk Factors

  • Secondary selling pressure from up to 6.9M units hitting the market.
  • No company proceeds from sales — no capital benefit to offset dilution.
  • Potential for accelerated or block-trade placement if selling unitholders seek to exit quickly.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Analyst Consensus
73% bullish (11 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Energy

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002924
Document: 9999999995-26-002924-index.html9999999995-26-002924
Document: 9999999995-26-002924.txt9999999995-26-002924
8 reports for KRP
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate @ T+60 3 of 4 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +7.96%Feb 26, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for KRP — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 16, 2026
10d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$16.39awaiting T+60—$16.86 (+2.87%)
Sep 10, 2026
6w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$15.10awaiting T+60—$16.86 (−11.66%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$15.46awaiting T+60—$16.86 (+9.06%)
Aug 7, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$14.98awaiting T+60—$16.86 (+12.55%)
Jul 17, 2026
14w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$14.98 $15.43▲ +3.00%▼ −1.68%$16.86 (+12.55%)
Jul 9, 2026
15w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$14.78 $14.58▲ +1.35%▲ +2.99%$16.86 (−14.07%)
May 19, 2026
22w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$15.30 $15.11▼ −1.24%▼ −7.53%$16.86 (+10.20%)
Feb 26, 2026
34w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$14.13 $15.26▲ +7.96%▲ +0.21%$16.86 (+19.28%)
Showing 8 of 8

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (10h 9m)

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Report published Sep 10, 2026