Monitor upcoming Q3 earnings for actual margin realization vs the 9-10% guidance range. The combination of rising diesel costs, project delays, and fewer high-margin late-season bids suggests downside risk to consensus estimates if these headwinds persist into Q4.
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Executive Summary
Knife River Corp posted an investor presentation on September 23, 2026, disclosing that 2Q26 headwinds (adverse weather, fuel cost spikes, project delays) are continuing into the busiest seasonal quarter. The company expects 2H26 contracting services margins of approximately 9-10%, and noted diesel prices increased ~40% since early July. The presentation also highlights long-term fundamentals (population growth in KNF states ~2x non-KNF states, 40% of IIJA funds unspent) and a TTM Adjusted EBITDA of $501.6M on $3.31B revenue through June 30, 2026.
Key Facts
- Expects 2H26 contracting services margins of approximately 9-10%
- Diesel prices increased approximately 40% since early July
- Adjusted EBITDA impact in 2Q26: ~$8M from market dynamics, ~$10M from construction delays, ~$6M from fuel costs
- Fewer public bid lettings driving increased competition
- Work remaining on P-209 in HI pushed to 2027
- TTM Adjusted EBITDA through June 30, 2026: $501.6M on revenue of $3,307.5M
- TTM Adjusted EBITDA margin through June 30, 2026: 15.2%
- Six-month net loss through June 30, 2026: ($35.3M)
Financial Impact
2H26 contracting services margins guided to ~9-10%, down from prior periods; diesel up ~40% since early July; cumulative ~$24M in disclosed 2Q26 Adjusted EBITDA impacts from headwinds
Risk Factors
- Diesel prices have risen ~40% since early July with delays in recouping escalation payments
- Fewer higher-margin late-season bidding opportunities and higher mix of lower-margin paving projects
- Construction delays on Highway 6 and 190 in TX progressing slower than anticipated
- Adverse weather in Texas, Hawaii and Alaska impacting operations
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-063145 |
| Document: septemberirpresentation.htm | 0001628280-26-063145 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-063145-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-063145 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-063145-index.html | 0001628280-26-063145 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-063145.txt | 0001628280-26-063145 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | SC 13G/A | $50.54 $47.98 | ▼ −5.07% | ▼ −4.08% | $52.91 (+4.69%) |
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $51.43 $50.42 | ▲ +1.96% | ▲ +1.29% | $52.91 (−2.88%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $69.51 $68.15 | ▲ +1.96% | ▲ +1.86% | $52.91 (+23.88%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $75.92 $83.46 | ▲ +9.93% | ▲ +9.50% | $52.91 (−30.31%) |
May 21, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $72.20 $78.54 | ▲ +8.78% | ▲ +7.12% | $52.91 (−26.72%) |
May 18, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $70.83 $78.30 | ▲ +10.55% | ▲ +8.25% | $52.91 (−25.30%) |
May 5, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $87.12 $82.41 | ▼ −5.41% | ▼ −7.39% | $52.91 (−39.27%) |
Apr 6, 2026 29w ago | DEFA14A | $74.82 $86.61 | ▲ +15.76% | ▲ +11.62% | $52.91 (−29.28%) |
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