Monitor Q3 2026 earnings for actual production vs the ~425,000 oz estimate and any further guidance revisions. The return of capital increase signals management confidence in cash flow, but the production miss at two assets warrants close watch on operational recovery at La Coipa and Round Mountain.
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Executive Summary
Kinross Gold lowered its full-year 2026-2027 attributable production guidance by 2-3% below the prior low end, now expecting ~1.84-1.86M Au eq. oz. per year, driven by extreme weather and operational issues at La Coipa and Round Mountain. The company raised its 2026 return of capital target from 40% to 50% of free cash flow, citing strong cash flow from its core Paracatu and Tasiast operations. The production miss is concentrated at two smaller assets and does not affect the broader portfolio, but the guidance reduction is a clear negative for near-term output expectations.
Key Facts
- Full-year 2026 and 2027 attributable production expected to be 2-3% below prior guidance low end, at ~1.84-1.86M Au eq. oz. per year.
- Q3 2026 attributable production expected to be ~425,000 Au eq. oz.
- 2026 attributable production cost of sales guided to ~$1,420-$1,460/oz; AISC guided to ~$1,850-$1,900/oz.
- Production issues concentrated at La Coipa (weather, copper grades/recoveries) and Round Mountain (lower mining rates, grades, recoveries).
- Return of capital target increased from 40% to 50% of free cash flow for 2026.
- Year-to-date 2026, Kinross returned ~$800M to shareholders, including ~$655M in share repurchases.
- Paracatu and Tasiast expected to produce combined 1.1M oz for fifth consecutive year, in line with guidance.
Financial Impact
Production shortfall of ~37,000-56,000 Au eq. oz. per year vs prior low end; cost guidance raised to $1,420-$1,460/oz production cost of sales and $1,850-$1,900/oz AISC.
Risk Factors
- Further weather or operational disruptions at La Coipa and Round Mountain could widen the production shortfall.
- Higher copper grades and lower recoveries at La Coipa may persist, requiring additional processing investment.
- Phase X at Round Mountain is not expected to contribute until 2028, leaving a gap in production growth.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001171843-26-006220 |
| Document: f6k_092426.htm | 0001171843-26-006220 |
| Document: 0001171843-26-006220-index-headers.html | 0001171843-26-006220 |
| Document: 0001171843-26-006220-index.html | 0001171843-26-006220 |
| Document: 0001171843-26-006220.txt | 0001171843-26-006220 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | 6-K | $23.18 | awaiting T+20 | — | $22.88 (−1.32%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $25.05 $22.34 | ▲ +10.82% | ▲ +9.34% | $22.88 (+8.68%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $23.62 $32.51 | ▲ +37.64% | ▲ +33.67% | $22.88 (−3.15%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $23.62 $32.51 | ▲ +37.64% | ▲ +33.67% | $22.88 (−3.15%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $23.62 $32.51 | ▲ +37.64% | ▲ +33.67% | $22.88 (−3.15%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $23.62 $32.51 | ▲ +37.64% | ▲ +33.67% | $22.88 (−3.15%) |
Jul 2, 2026 16w ago | 6-K | $24.71 $23.62 | ▼ −4.41% | ▼ −4.00% | $22.88 (−7.43%) |
Jul 2, 2026 16w ago | Press Release | $24.71 $23.62 | ▼ −4.41% | ▼ −4.00% | $22.88 (−7.43%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | Press Release | $29.55 $29.14 | ▲ +1.39% | ▲ +6.67% | $22.88 (+22.59%) |
Apr 1, 2026 29w ago | Press Release | $31.51 $30.24 | ▼ −4.03% | ▼ −13.91% | $22.88 (−27.40%) |
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