Monitor KeyCorp's 3Q26 earnings for progress toward the 4Q27 NIM target of 3.25%+ and the 15%+ ROTCE goal. The pace of share repurchase execution ($1.3Bn+ planned in 2026) and any further credit rating actions are key near-term catalysts.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
KeyCorp posted an investor presentation for European meetings, reaffirming FY2026 guidance for revenue up ~8%, NII up 9-11%, and a 4Q27 NIM target of 3.25%+ with 15%+ ROTCE. The presentation highlights strong capital ratios (CET1 11.2%, marked CET1 9.8%), a sticky deposit base, and momentum in fee-based businesses. No new material financial data or surprises were disclosed beyond previously communicated targets.
Key Facts
- FY2026 guidance: revenue up ~8% vs FY25 baseline of $7,513M; NII up 9-11% vs $4,671M baseline
- 4Q27 NIM target of 3.25%+ and ROTCE target of 15%+
- 2Q26 marked CET1 ratio of 9.8%; CET1 ratio of 11.2%
- Board authorized up to $3.0Bn in share repurchases; at least $1.3Bn expected in 2026
- Record AUM of $74Bn as of 6/30/2026; 1H26 priority fee-based businesses grew 8% YoY
- Credit ratings upgrade from Fitch and Moody's; positive outlook from S&P
- Clearwater UK acquisition closed August 2026, expected to add $60-70M revenue in 2027
Financial Impact
No new financial data; reaffirmed existing FY2026 guidance for ~8% revenue growth and 9-11% NII growth
Risk Factors
- NIM expansion may fall short of 3.25%+ target if fixed-rate asset repricing tailwinds underperform
- Commercial real estate credit quality, particularly office exposure, could pressure credit costs
- Share repurchase program may not be fully executed if capital priorities shift
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-063618 |
| Document: key-20260925.htm | 0001628280-26-063618 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-063618-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-063618 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-063618-index.html | 0001628280-26-063618 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-063618.txt | 0001628280-26-063618 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | 8-K | $20.81 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (+1.92%) |
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | Institutional Cluster | $19.99 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (−6.10%) |
Oct 5, 2026 21d ago | Press Release | $20.18 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (+5.10%) |
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $20.40 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (+3.97%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $21.93 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (−3.28%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $23.10 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (−8.18%) |
Jul 31, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $22.81 | awaiting T+60 | — | $21.21 (−7.01%) |
Jul 21, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $22.95 $19.91 | ▼ −13.25% | ▼ −17.22% | $21.21 (−7.58%) |
Jun 25, 2026 17w ago | EFFECT | $23.41 $20.81 | ▲ +11.11% | ▲ +14.96% | $21.21 (+9.40%) |
Jun 22, 2026 18w ago | S-3/A | $23.02 $20.72 | ▲ +9.99% | ▲ +13.24% | $21.21 (+7.86%) |
US Market Status
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