The EPS miss and margin compression from metal lag and operational issues are the headline, but the maintained full-year outlook suggests management sees Q3 as a trough. Watch the Q4 2026 print for evidence that Bellwood outage and scrap utilization issues are resolving — if margins recover toward 25%+ on higher Conversion Revenue, the bearish read may be short-lived.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Kaiser Aluminum reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.89, missing consensus of $2.45 by 22.9%, while net sales rose 44% YoY to $1.21B (in line with $1.22B consensus). Adjusted EBITDA of $84M grew only 3% YoY as a $29M unfavorable swing in metal price lag and operational headwinds (Bellwood outage, roll coat start-up costs) compressed margins. The company maintained its full-year Conversion Revenue growth outlook at the high end of 10-15% but guided Adjusted EBITDA growth toward the lower end of 45-55% due to operational outages and metal headwinds.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 adjusted EPS $1.89 vs consensus $2.45 (22.9% miss)
- Net sales $1.21B (+44% YoY) vs consensus $1.22B (in line)
- Conversion Revenue $439M (+25% YoY), driven by favorable pricing and mix
- Adjusted EBITDA $84M (+3% YoY); margin compressed to 19.1% from 23.2%
- Metal price lag swung from +$28M favorable in Q3 2025 to -$1M unfavorable in Q3 2026 (~$29M headwind)
- Net debt leverage improved to 2.0x from 3.4x at year-end 2025
- Moody's upgraded credit rating to Ba3 with stable outlook on Oct 2, 2026
- Maintaining full-year 2026 outlook: Conversion Revenue growth at high end of 10-15%; Adjusted EBITDA growth toward lower end of 45-55%
- CEO transition: Fred Stephan to succeed Keith Harvey as CEO effective Nov 1, 2026
Financial Impact
EPS miss of 22.9% vs consensus; Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed ~410 bps YoY due to metal lag swing and operational inefficiencies
Risk Factors
- Further metal price lag headwinds if aluminum prices decline
- Execution risk on Bellwood restart and roll coat ramp
- Customer year-end inventory destocking could pressure Q4 volumes
- CEO transition creates near-term uncertainty
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-427927 |
| Document: kalu-20261021.htm | 0001193125-26-427927 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-427927-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-427927 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-427927-index.html | 0001193125-26-427927 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-427927.txt | 0001193125-26-427927 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-427927 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $114.99 | awaiting T+20 | — | $105.47 (+8.28%) |
Oct 13, 2026 13d ago | 8-K | $148.17 | awaiting T+20 | — | $105.47 (−28.82%) |
Apr 27, 2026 26w ago | Insider Cluster | $174.94 $185.55 | ▲ +6.06% | ▲ +1.11% | $105.47 (−39.71%) |
Apr 27, 2026 26w ago | Insider Cluster | $174.94 $185.55 | ▲ +6.06% | ▲ +1.11% | $105.47 (−39.71%) |
Apr 27, 2026 26w ago | Insider Cluster | $174.94 $185.55 | ▲ +6.06% | ▲ +1.11% | $105.47 (−39.71%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $164.07 $168.95 | ▲ +2.97% | ▼ −1.66% | $105.47 (−35.72%) |
Apr 13, 2026 28w ago | 8-K | $141.79 $180.39 | ▲ +27.22% | ▲ +20.92% | $105.47 (−25.62%) |
Feb 23, 2026 35w ago | Insider Cluster | $125.24 $110.87 | ▲ +11.48% | ▲ +7.53% | $105.47 (+15.79%) |
Feb 23, 2026 35w ago | Insider Cluster | $125.24 $110.87 | ▲ +11.48% | ▲ +7.53% | $105.47 (+15.79%) |
US Market Status
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