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Institutional Cluster

JCAP

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE
NEUTRAL
Impact 3/10
Horizonweeks Processed4mo ago
Institutional cluster: 3 buyers, 0 sellers (bullish)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The cluster is entirely passive/index-driven with no active manager participation, suggesting the buying reflects index rebalancing or market-cap weighting adjustments rather than a fundamental thesis. Monitor for active manager 13F filings or insider activity for a more meaningful signal. The 92% analyst bullish consensus is already priced in.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
JCAP ▲ +31.14% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call +31.14% · α vs SPY +26.75% · entry $16.28 → $21.35
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.49%
call +0.49% · α -0.05%
$16.36
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
+6.94%
call +6.94% · α +6.51%
$17.41
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
+13.76%
call +13.76% · α +11.87%
$18.52
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
+31.14%
call +31.14% · α +26.75%
$21.35
settled 7w ago

Executive Summary

Three mega-passive institutions (Vanguard, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley) collectively added $20.6M in JCAP during Q3 2025, with BlackRock initiating a new $11.6M position and Vanguard and Morgan Stanley more than quintupling their stakes. The cluster is entirely passive/index-driven, reflecting index rebalancing or market-cap weighting adjustments rather than an active investment thesis.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$22.2M
Net Flow
$20.6M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $20.6M

▲ Buyers (3)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
VanguardDOUBLED+665.2%$9.9M$8.5M
BlackRockNEW—$11.6M$11.6M
Morgan StanleyDOUBLED+537.4%$655.0K$545.0K

Key Facts

  • 3 mega-passive institutions accumulated $20.6M in JCAP during Q3 2025
  • BlackRock initiated a new $11.6M position (670.8K shares)
  • Vanguard doubled its stake from $1.4M to $9.9M (+665% shares)
  • Morgan Stanley increased from $110K to $655K (+537% shares)
  • No sellers were identified in the cluster
  • All three buyers are mega-passive index fund managers, not active hedge funds or activists

Financial Impact

3 institutions accumulated $20.6M in new JCAP holdings, representing approximately 2.3% of the $888M market cap based on disclosed values

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • Passive buying provides no fundamental catalyst — positions may be unwound next quarter
  • 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have already been adjusted
  • No active managers or hedge funds participated, reducing signal quality

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Short-Term Business Credit Institutions
Analyst Consensus
92% bullish (13 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-JCAP-2025-Q3
10 reports for JCAP
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+20 3 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 3 of 3 best @ T+20▲ +8.41%Jul 4, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for JCAP — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$22.29 $20.25▼ −9.15%▼ −8.63%—
Jul 20, 2026
14w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$19.06 $23.65▲ +24.08%▲ +19.96%—
Jul 4, 2026
16w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$18.55 $20.11▲ +8.41%▲ +8.98%—
Jul 2, 2026
16w ago
S-3
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$18.82 $20.06▲ +6.59%▲ +7.00%—
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$16.28 $18.52▲ +13.76%▲ +11.87%—
May 19, 2026
23w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$16.85 $17.15▲ +1.82%▲ +0.82%—
May 14, 2026
23w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$17.62 $16.36▲ +7.16%▲ +9.28%—
Apr 30, 2026
25w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$20.87 $16.66▼ −20.17%▼ −25.46%—
Mar 18, 2026
31w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$20.00 $21.28▲ +6.40%▼ −1.22%—
Mar 12, 2026
32w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$19.58 $19.96▲ +1.96%▼ −1.63%—
Showing 10 of 10

US Market Status

Market Open — Closes in 3h 33m

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Report published Jun 11, 2026