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8-K ·Filed May 14, 2026

JCAP

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizondays Processed5mo ago SEC0001104659-26-061149
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The sharp operating expense growth and net income decline signal deteriorating earnings quality. Monitor next quarter's expense trajectory and deployment activity (down 14.6% YoY). The stock may face selling pressure on the earnings miss; watch for analyst downgrades and valuation recalibration.

DirectionBearish
Confidencemedium
Horizondays
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
JCAP ▲ +19.62% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -19.62% · α vs SPY -15.11% · entry $17.62 → $21.08
Entry = T+0 close
May 14, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-2.91%
call +2.91% · α +2.85%
$17.11
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
-3.25%
call +3.25% · α +4.21%
$17.05
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-7.16%
call +7.16% · α +9.28%
$16.36
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
+19.62%
call -19.62% · α -15.11%
$21.08
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

JCAP reported Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.61, missing consensus of $0.80 by 23.8%, while revenue grew 13.9% to a record $176.4M. Net income plunged 41.4% to $37.6M as operating expenses surged 46.8%, driven by higher servicing costs and $8.5M in stock-based compensation. The earnings miss and margin compression overshadow strong collections growth and improved leverage.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
$0.61
est $0.80 · -23.8%
Revenue
$176.4M
+13.9% YoY
Rating
strong miss

Key Facts

  • GAAP EPS $0.61 missed consensus $0.80 (-23.8%)
  • Record quarterly revenue $176.4M, up 13.9% YoY
  • Net income fell 41.4% to $37.6M
  • Operating expenses +46.8% to $95.6M; stock-based compensation $8.5M
  • Record collections $309.9M, up 18.8% YoY
  • Leverage improved to 1.79x from 2.17x
  • Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.24/share

Financial Impact

GAAP EPS miss of $0.19 vs consensus; net income decline of $26.6M YoY

epsnet incomeoperating expenses

Risk Factors

  • Operating expense growth outpacing revenue if collection efficiency doesn't improve
  • Deployments down 14.6% YoY; could slow future revenue growth
  • Heavy stock-based compensation ($8.5M) may continue to pressure GAAP earnings

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Short-Term Business Credit Institutions
Analyst Consensus
92% bullish (13 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-061149
Document: jcap-20260514x8k.htm0001104659-26-061149
Document: 0001104659-26-061149-index-headers.html0001104659-26-061149
Document: 0001104659-26-061149-index.html0001104659-26-061149
Document: 0001104659-26-061149.txt0001104659-26-061149
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001104659-26-061149
10 reports for JCAP
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for JCAP — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$22.29 $20.25▼ −9.15%▼ −8.63%$20.27 (−9.06%)
Jul 20, 2026
14w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$19.06 $23.65▲ +24.08%▲ +19.96%$20.27 (+6.35%)
Jul 4, 2026
16w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$18.55 $20.11▲ +8.41%▲ +8.98%$20.27 (+9.27%)
Jul 2, 2026
16w ago
S-3
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$18.82 $20.06▲ +6.59%▲ +7.00%$20.27 (+7.70%)
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$16.28 $18.52▲ +13.76%▲ +11.87%$20.27 (+24.51%)
May 19, 2026
23w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$16.85 $17.15▲ +1.82%▲ +0.82%$20.27 (+20.32%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$17.62 $16.36▲ +7.16%▲ +9.28%$20.27 (−15.03%)
Apr 30, 2026
25w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$20.87 $16.66▼ −20.17%▼ −25.46%$20.27 (−2.87%)
Mar 18, 2026
31w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$20.00 $21.28▲ +6.40%▼ −1.22%$20.27 (+1.35%)
Mar 12, 2026
32w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$19.58 $19.96▲ +1.96%▼ −1.63%$20.27 (+3.55%)
Showing 10 of 10

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Report published May 14, 2026