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424B5 ·Filed Oct 6, 2026

INV

Innventure, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed20d 15h ago SEC0001140361-26-038821
Notable filing: 424B5
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The ATM offering provides near-term liquidity but at massive dilution given the sub-$1 stock price. Monitor the pace of share sales under the ATM and any subsequent 8-K filings for actual sales amounts. Also watch for Nasdaq compliance updates and any Accelsius capital raise that could trigger preemptive rights or further dilution.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
INV ▲ +2.23% at T+5d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -2.23% · α vs SPY -3.21% · entry $0.2690 → $0.2750
Next anchor: T+20d in 7d
Latest observation: T+12 -175.88% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 6, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+12.64%
call -12.64% · α -13.06%
$0.3030
settled 20d ago
T+5d
+2.23%
call -2.23% · α -3.21%
$0.2750
settled 14d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 7d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Innventure filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement for an at-the-market (ATM) offering of up to $60 million in common stock through Lucid Capital Markets. The stock closed at $0.504/share on October 2, 2026, and the offering could dilute existing shareholders by up to ~58% (119M shares at the assumed price). Proceeds are earmarked for working capital and potentially acquiring additional Accelsius units, but the company is in a strategic restructuring with declining cash, a new CEO/CFO, and a Nasdaq bid-price compliance risk.

Key Facts

  • ATM offering of up to $60,000,000 in common stock via Lucid Capital Markets.
  • Last reported sale price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.504 per share.
  • At the assumed price, up to 119,047,619 shares could be issued, representing ~57.85% dilution to existing holders.
  • Net proceeds estimated at ~$58.2 million after commissions and expenses.
  • Pro forma net tangible book value per share would increase from $0.13 to $0.34, but new investors face $0.17/share dilution.
  • Stock has traded between $0.485 and $7.32 in 2026; Nasdaq minimum bid price is $1.00, creating delisting risk.
  • Company is in a strategic repositioning: focusing on Accelsius, pursuing AeroFlexx monetization, cutting parent-level cash expenses from $7.5M to ~$3.2M/quarter by year-end 2026.
  • CEO and CFO both changed in recent months; executive chairman and two other directors resigned.
  • Audited financial statements include a going-concern explanatory paragraph.
  • WTI warrants contain anti-dilution provisions that could further increase dilution in future financings.

Financial Impact

Up to $60 million gross proceeds; net ~$58.2 million. Dilution of ~57.85% at assumed $0.504/share price.

dilutionnet tangible book valuecash runway

Risk Factors

  • Massive dilution (~58%) from the ATM offering at current prices.
  • Nasdaq minimum bid price non-compliance risk (stock at $0.504 vs $1.00 threshold).
  • Going-concern uncertainty flagged in audited financials.
  • WTI warrant anti-dilution provisions could magnify dilution in future financings.
  • Strategic repositioning may not succeed; Accelsius capital needs are uncertain.
  • Putative securities class action lawsuit filed in August 2026.

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
424B5 Filing (Primary)0001140361-26-038821
Document: ny20081318x1_ex107.htm0001140361-26-038821
Document: 0001140361-26-038821-index-headers.html0001140361-26-038821
Document: 0001140361-26-038821-index.html0001140361-26-038821
Document: 0001140361-26-038821.txt0001140361-26-038821
23 reports for INV
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+5 4 of 6 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 8 best @ T+60▲ +77.88%Mar 4, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for INV — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 23, 2026
3d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.3242awaiting T+5—$0.2920 (+9.93%)
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.3335awaiting T+5—$0.2920 (−12.44%)
Oct 20, 2026
7d ago
SC 13D/A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.2900awaiting T+5—$0.2920 (−0.69%)
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
SC 13D/A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.2900awaiting T+5—$0.2920 (−0.69%)
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.2902awaiting T+5—$0.2920 (+0.62%)
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.2420 $0.2900▲ +19.83%▲ +20.99%$0.2920 (+20.66%)
Oct 8, 2026
19d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$0.3030 $0.2950▼ −2.64%▼ −2.36%$0.2920 (−3.63%)
Oct 6, 2026
20d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$0.2690 $0.2750▲ +2.23%▲ +3.21%$0.2920 (+8.55%)
Oct 6, 2026
20d ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.2690 $0.2750▼ −2.23%▼ −3.21%$0.2920 (−8.55%)
Sep 21, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8800 $0.6902▲ +21.57%▲ +20.55%$0.2920 (+66.82%)
Showing 10 of 23

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens in 4m

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Report published Oct 6, 2026