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GOVT-CONTRACT ·Filed Sep 28, 2026

IBM

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP
NEUTRAL
Impact 2/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago
Large government contract award ($500M+)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

This is a routine contract renewal for IBM's mainframe business with the SSA. No material revenue or margin impact expected. Monitor for any larger federal IT modernization contracts that could signal broader government demand for IBM's infrastructure.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
IBM ▲ +13.76% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call +13.76% · α vs SPY +13.04% · entry $219.99 → $250.25
Next anchor: T+60d in 8w
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 29, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.03%
call -0.03% · α +0.18%
$219.93
settled 28d ago
T+5d
+0.59%
call +0.59% · α -1.36%
$221.29
settled 22d ago
T+20d
+13.76%
call +13.76% · α +13.04%
$250.25
settled 13h ago
T+60d
Pending
in 8w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

IBM was awarded a $130.4 million contract by the Social Security Administration to provide mainframe hardware and storage, replacing an expiring blanket purchase agreement. The award represents approximately 0.19% of IBM's annualized revenue, making it a routine contract renewal with minimal financial impact.

Key Financial Metrics

Award Amount
$130.4M
Agency
Social Security Administration
Contract Type
new
Rev Impact
+0.2%

Key Facts

  • Award amount: $130,434,205.69
  • Awarding agency: Social Security Administration
  • Contract replaces expiring BPA SS00-16-60010, which ends 09/30/2026
  • Period of performance starts 09/28/2026
  • Award represents ~0.19% of IBM's annualized revenue of $67.36B

Financial Impact

$130.4M contract, approximately 0.19% of annualized revenue

revenue

Risk Factors

  • Government funding subject to continuing resolutions and budget uncertainty
  • Execution risk on mainframe hardware delivery and storage integration
  • Potential for protest or recompete if terms are challenged

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 federal contract record from official U.S. government contract data.

DocumentAccession Number
GOVT-CONTRACT Data (Synthetic)contract-28321326FDS030164
24 reports for IBM
Performance horizon
80% Hit rate @ T+1 4 of 5 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 5 best @ T+5▲ +6.01%Feb 25, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for IBM — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
6d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$252.11 $253.56▲ +0.58%▲ +1.10%$253.44 (+0.53%)
Oct 21, 2026
6d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$252.11 $253.56▲ +0.58%▲ +1.10%$253.44 (+0.53%)
Oct 20, 2026
8d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$251.46 $252.11▲ +0.26%▲ +1.44%$253.44 (+0.79%)
Oct 8, 2026
20d ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$227.13 $227.02▼ −0.05%▲ +0.01%$253.44 (+11.58%)
Oct 1, 2026
27d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$222.64 $221.58▼ −0.48%▼ −1.15%$253.44 (+13.83%)
Sep 30, 2026
28d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$225.62 $222.64▼ −1.32%▼ −2.06%$253.44 (+12.33%)
Sep 28, 2026
4w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$219.99 $219.93▼ −0.03%▲ +0.18%$253.44 (+15.21%)
Sep 11, 2026
6w ago
GOVT-CONTRACT
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$249.09 $248.37▼ −0.29%▲ +0.17%$253.44 (+1.75%)
Aug 26, 2026
8w ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$238.79 $235.59▼ −1.34%▼ −1.11%$253.44 (+6.14%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
424B5
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$235.98 $237.14▲ +0.49%▼ −0.21%$253.44 (+7.40%)
Showing 10 of 24

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Thu (12h 2m)

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Report published Sep 28, 2026