The persistent EPS miss (second consecutive quarter with >75% miss) and rising cost guidance suggest structural margin pressures. Watch for further downward revisions to production or cash flow guidance if commodity prices soften. The dividend is covered but at risk if cash flows deteriorate further.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Granite Ridge reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.02, missing the $0.09 consensus by 77.8%, while revenue grew 4.4% YoY to $128.3M. Adjusted EBITDAX fell 22% to $71.0M, and 2026 guidance was revised upward for both acquisitions and per-unit lease operating expenses, signaling margin compression. The $0.11 quarterly dividend was maintained.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- GAAP net loss of $47.0M ($0.36/share) vs net income of $9.8M ($0.07/share) in Q1 2025
- Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) of $0.02 vs consensus $0.09 — a 77.8% miss
- Revenue from oil and gas sales $128.3M, up 4.4% from $122.9M
- Production grew 18% to 34,467 Boe/day, driven by 11% oil and 24% natural gas increases
- Adjusted EBITDAX fell to $71.0M from $91.4M, down 22% YoY
- Lease operating expenses per Boe surged 55% to $9.57, driven by higher disposal costs and rentals
- 2026 guidance: acquisition spending raised to $45-55M (from $20-30M); LOE per Boe guided $7.75-$8.75 (from $6.75-$7.75)
- Quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share maintained
- Net debt to trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDAX remained at 1.3x
Financial Impact
Adjusted EPS missed by $0.07 per share; Adjusted EBITDAX decreased $20.4M YoY; LOE per Boe increased 55%
Risk Factors
- Continued cost inflation in LOE and capex may compress margins further
- Lower commodity prices could exacerbate the earnings miss trend
- Leverage remains manageable but net debt increased to $396M from $370M at year-end
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001928446-26-000015 |
| Document: grnt-20260507.htm | 0001928446-26-000015 |
| Document: 0001928446-26-000015-index-headers.html | 0001928446-26-000015 |
| Document: 0001928446-26-000015-index.html | 0001928446-26-000015 |
| Document: 0001928446-26-000015.txt | 0001928446-26-000015 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001928446-26-000015 |
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