The sharp decline in revenue, EPS, and gross margins, combined with a miss on consensus estimates, signals deteriorating fundamentals. Watch for further margin compression and order trends in Q4, as well as any update on the company's ability to maintain its peer-leading gross margins in a challenging housing environment.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Green Brick Partners reported Q3 2026 diluted EPS of $1.35, down 23.7% YoY from $1.77, and total homebuilding revenue of $437M, down 9.7% YoY. Homebuilding gross margins contracted 410 bps to 28.0%. The company missed the consensus EPS estimate of $1.43 and revenue estimate of $467M. Net new home orders rose 3% YoY, but the average sales price fell 12.1%, and backlog revenue declined 17%. The company also announced a routine quarterly preferred dividend.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 diluted EPS of $1.35, down 23.7% YoY from $1.77
- Total homebuilding revenue of $437M, down 9.7% YoY from $484M
- Homebuilding gross margin of 28.0%, down 410 bps from 32.1%
- Net income attributable to Green Brick of $59.2M, down 24% YoY
- Average sales price of homes delivered fell 12.1% to $446.7K
- Backlog revenue down 17% to $379M, backlog units down 6.8%
- Net new home orders up 3% to 926 units
- Repurchased 264,215 shares for $17.9M during the quarter
- Retired $50M of 4.00% senior notes due August 2026
- Quarter-end liquidity of $325M including $100M cash
- Book value per share up 14% to $46.10
- Financial services operating income up 69% YoY to $5.6M
Financial Impact
EPS miss of $0.08 vs consensus ($1.35 actual vs $1.43 estimate); revenue miss of approximately $30M vs consensus ($437M actual vs $467M estimate)
Risk Factors
- Continued affordability pressures and rising interest rates could further compress margins and sales pace
- Elevated incentives (11% on new orders) may erode profitability further
- Backlog decline suggests lower future revenue visibility
- Average selling price decline of 12.1% indicates pricing power erosion
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-067938 |
| Document: grbk-20261028.htm | 0001628280-26-067938 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-067938-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-067938 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-067938-index.html | 0001628280-26-067938 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-067938.txt | 0001628280-26-067938 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-067938 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2026 today | SC 13D/A | $63.22 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $62.53 (−1.09%) |
Oct 28, 2026 2d ago | 8-K | $62.53 $60.86 | ▲ +2.67% | ▲ +0.90% | $62.53 (+0.00%) |
Oct 26, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $64.08 $62.92 | ▼ −1.81% | ▼ −2.15% | $62.53 (−2.42%) |
Jul 30, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $70.13 $70.73 | ▲ +0.86% | ▲ +0.15% | $62.53 (−10.84%) |
Jun 11, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $72.19 $72.06 | ▼ −0.18% | ▼ −1.94% | $62.53 (−13.38%) |
Jun 9, 2026 20w ago | 144 | $22.09 $22.38 | ▲ +1.32% | ▼ −0.38% | $62.53 (+183.09%) |
May 22, 2026 23w ago | DEFA14A | $23.23 $23.36 | ▲ +0.56% | ▼ −0.03% | $62.53 (+169.18%) |
Feb 25, 2026 35w ago | 8-K | $77.69 $73.66 | ▼ −5.19% | ▼ −4.73% | $62.53 (−19.51%) |
US Market Status
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