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EFFECT ·Filed Sep 24, 2026

GOVX

GeoVax Labs, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizondays Processed1mo ago SEC9999999995-26-003048
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Monitor for any subsequent 8-K or prospectus supplement announcing warrant exercise and share issuance. The effectiveness removes the last regulatory barrier to immediate dilution — any insider selling or large block trades post-effectiveness would signal near-term price pressure.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d
GOVX ▼ -40.97% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +40.97% · α vs SPY +40.55% · entry $0.3603 → $0.2127
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Latest observation: T+21 +3.35% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 24, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-2.58%
call +2.58% · α +3.12%
$0.3510
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-10.57%
call +10.57% · α +10.16%
$0.3222
settled 26d ago
T+20d
-40.97%
call +40.97% · α +40.55%
$0.2127
settled 5d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

GeoVax Labs' S-1 registration statement (File No. 333-298989) became effective on September 23, 2026, allowing the resale of up to 7.64 million common shares by institutional investors upon warrant exercise. The company receives no proceeds from the resale but may receive up to ~$8.6 million if warrants are cash-exercised. With only ~$1.3 million cash and a going concern opinion, this effectiveness creates immediate dilution overhang for a clinical-stage biotech with no product revenue.

Key Facts

  • S-1 registration effective 2026-09-23 for resale of up to 7.64 million shares by institutional investors
  • Shares issuable upon exercise of warrants from May 2026 capital raises (warrant inducement and PIPE)
  • Company receives no proceeds from resale; may receive up to ~$8.6 million if warrants cash-exercised
  • GeoVax had only ~$1.3 million cash as of March 31, 2026, with a going concern opinion
  • Clinical-stage biotech with no product revenue

Financial Impact

Potential dilution of up to 7.64 million shares (significant relative to current float); potential cash inflow of ~$8.6 million if warrants exercised

dilutioncashshare count

Risk Factors

  • Immediate dilution overhang from potential resale of 7.64 million shares
  • Cash runway remains critically low (~$1.3M) with no product revenue
  • Going concern risk persists if warrants are not exercised for cash

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-003048
Document: 9999999995-26-003048-index.html9999999995-26-003048
Document: 9999999995-26-003048.txt9999999995-26-003048
10 reports for GOVX
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+60 6 of 6 directional calls Went positive at some point 6 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +67.80%May 19, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GOVX — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 27, 2026
today
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.2032awaiting T+60—$0.2059 (−1.33%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.3603awaiting T+60—$0.2059 (+42.85%)
Jun 4, 2026
20w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$1.79 $0.7210▲ +59.72%▲ +61.60%$0.2059 (+88.50%)
May 26, 2026
22w ago
S-1
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$3.49 $0.5947▼ −82.96%▼ −85.68%$0.2059 (−94.10%)
May 19, 2026
22w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$2.23 $0.7180▲ +67.80%▲ +72.81%$0.2059 (+90.77%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$1.23 $0.7700▲ +37.40%▲ +41.91%$0.2059 (+83.26%)
May 7, 2026
24w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$1.67 $0.7620▲ +54.37%▲ +59.21%$0.2059 (+87.67%)
Apr 22, 2026
26w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$1.17 $0.9742▼ −16.73%▼ −21.51%$0.2059 (−82.40%)
Apr 20, 2026
27w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$1.17 $1.01▲ +13.68%▲ +20.45%$0.2059 (+82.40%)
Apr 15, 2026
27w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$1.23 $1.11▲ +9.76%▲ +16.80%$0.2059 (+83.26%)
Showing 10 of 10

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Report published Sep 24, 2026