Monitor the upcoming Expansion Asset turnaround in May 2026 and the timing of first oil from Pad 7 (Q4 2026) and Pad 8 (Q3 2027). The increased capex without corresponding production growth guidance suggests near-term cash burn will persist. Watch for further drawdowns on the credit facility or potential equity/debt offerings if hedging losses materialize. The company's high dependence on Waterous Energy Fund (72% owner) adds governance risk.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Greenfire Resources reported a net loss of C$73.0 million for Q1 2026, compared to net income of C$16.2 million a year ago, as oil sales fell 20% to C$147.3 million and bitumen production declined 16% to 14,719 bbl/d. Adjusted funds flow dropped 22% to C$24.5 million, and adjusted free cash flow was a deficit of C$25.1 million. The company maintained its 2026 production guidance but increased capital expenditure guidance to C$210 million, primarily for Pad 7 and accelerated Pad 8 drilling. The deterioration in headline financials, negative free cash flow, and reliance on credit drawdowns signal near-term financial stress.
Key Facts
- Net loss of C$73.0 million in Q1 2026 vs net income of C$16.2 million in Q1 2025
- Oil sales fell 20% to C$147.3 million from C$183.6 million YoY
- Bitumen production declined 16% to 14,719 bbl/d from 17,495 bbl/d YoY
- Operating netback per barrel dropped 26% to C$23.42 from C$31.67
- Adjusted EBITDA decreased 38% to C$25.6 million from C$41.3 million
- Adjusted free cash flow deficit of C$25.1 million vs positive C$5.1 million in Q1 2025
- Cash used in investing activities was C$44.1 million, more than 30x cash from operations of C$1.4 million
- Capital expenditure guidance raised to C$210 million from C$180 million for 2026
- Cash balance reduced to C$0.5 million at March 31, 2026, with C$4.1 million drawn on credit facility
- Unrealized loss on risk management contracts of C$91.4 million (non-cash) drove the net loss
Financial Impact
Net loss of C$73.0 million vs prior year profit of C$16.2 million; revenue decline of C$36.3 million; adjusted funds flow decline of C$6.9 million
Risk Factors
- Continued production decline without offset from new pads could worsen cash flow deficits
- Large unrealized hedging losses (C$91.4M) may crystallize if commodity prices move unfavorably
- Increased capex of C$210M against weak operating cash flow may strain liquidity beyond existing credit lines
- Concentration risk from single joint interest partner and single customer (77% of trade receivables)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001213900-26-052735 |
| Document: ea028938901ex99-2.htm | 0001213900-26-052735 |
| Document: ea028938901ex99-3.htm | 0001213900-26-052735 |
| Document: ea0289389-6k_greenfire.htm | 0001213900-26-052735 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-052735-index-headers.html | 0001213900-26-052735 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-052735-index.html | 0001213900-26-052735 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-052735.txt | 0001213900-26-052735 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 7, 2026 24w ago | 6-K | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | 6-K | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Apr 16, 2026 27w ago | 6-K | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Create a free account Live analysis, Telegram alerts, watchlists and the MCP server for subscribers