The take-private process with a November 9 bid deadline creates a binary catalyst. The raised guidance and strong organic growth (7.4%) support the bull case, but the net loss from continuing operations and elevated leverage (3.8x) warrant monitoring. Watch for any announcement from the Special Committee after the deadline.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
GFL Environmental reported Q3 2026 revenue of $2,155.3M (up 27.2% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $678.7M (up 26.8% YoY), both ahead of consensus. The company raised full-year 2026 guidance for the third time this year, now expecting revenue of approximately $8,055M-$8,075M and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2,490M-$2,495M. Additionally, a Special Committee is reviewing unsolicited proposals to take the company private, with a final bid deadline of November 9, 2026.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 revenue of $2,155.3M, up 27.2% YoY (7.4% organic growth, accelerating 100 bps sequentially)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $678.7M, up 26.8% YoY; underlying margin expansion of 115 bps excluding M&A and diesel
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $272.5M, up from $180.5M in Q3 2025
- Net loss from continuing operations of $28.0M vs net income of $90.4M in Q3 2025
- Raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to ~$8,055M-$8,075M (from ~$7,510M-$7,530M)
- Raised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to ~$2,490M-$2,495M (from ~$2,290M)
- Raised full-year 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance to ~$1,020M (from ~$900M)
- Special Committee formed to review unsolicited take-private proposals; final bid deadline November 9, 2026
- Year-to-date completed acquisitions generating approximately $2 billion in annualized revenue
- No shares repurchased in Q3 2026
Financial Impact
Revenue beat consensus by ~$45M (2.1%); Adjusted EBITDA up 26.8% YoY; guidance raised across all key metrics with revenue guidance up ~$545M and Adjusted EBITDA up ~$200M at the midpoint
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | $773.0M | +38.3% |
| USA | $1.4B | +21.7% |
Risk Factors
- Take-private process may not result in a transaction; uncertainty around valuation and financing
- Net loss from continuing operations of $28.0M in Q3 vs net income of $90.4M in prior year
- Net leverage increased to 3.8x from 3.4x at year-end 2025 due to acquisition-related debt
- Integration risks from large acquisitions (SECURE Waste Infrastructure and others)
- Foreign exchange and commodity price volatility could impact future results
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-119630 |
| Document: tm2626649d2_6k.htm | 0001104659-26-119630 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-119630-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-119630 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-119630-index.html | 0001104659-26-119630 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-119630.txt | 0001104659-26-119630 |
| 6-K Earnings Context (Synthetic) | 0001104659-26-119630 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2026 today | 6-K | $45.00 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $45.21 (−0.47%) |
Oct 30, 2026 today | Institutional Cluster | $45.24 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $45.21 (−0.07%) |
Oct 28, 2026 2d ago | 6-K | $45.04 $45.21 | ▲ +0.38% | ▲ +2.15% | $45.21 (+0.38%) |
Oct 8, 2026 22d ago | 6-K | $42.31 $42.76 | ▲ +1.06% | ▲ +0.46% | $45.21 (+6.85%) |
Oct 1, 2026 29d ago | 6-K | $40.43 $41.98 | ▲ +3.83% | ▲ +3.09% | $45.21 (+11.82%) |
Sep 29, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $42.20 $41.83 | ▼ −0.88% | ▼ −0.67% | $45.21 (+7.13%) |
Sep 29, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $42.20 $41.83 | ▼ −0.88% | ▼ −0.67% | $45.21 (+7.13%) |
Sep 24, 2026 5w ago | 6-K | $41.79 $42.27 | ▲ +1.15% | ▲ +0.61% | $45.21 (+8.18%) |
Sep 24, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $41.79 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $45.21 (+8.18%) |
Sep 22, 2026 5w ago | Institutional Cluster | $42.34 $41.90 | ▼ −1.04% | ▼ −0.32% | $45.21 (+6.78%) |
US Market Status
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