The strong beat and raised guidance, combined with a dividend increase and new buyback, signal management's confidence in structural improvements despite a weak macro. However, the CEO's cautious tone on demand suggests the beat is largely self-help driven. Traders should watch for follow-through on the $150M buyback and Q4 free cash flow conversion to confirm the sustainability of the margin expansion.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Greif reported a strong fiscal Q3 2026 beat, with adjusted EPS of $1.61 (+39.4% vs consensus) and Adjusted EBITDA up 24.7% YoY to $183.4M, driven by cost optimization and price/cost execution. Guidance was raised to $615-635M Adjusted EBITDA (from $610M low-end), and the company announced a 10.7% dividend increase and a new $150M share repurchase plan. However, organic revenue was roughly flat, and the CEO noted no demand inflection, with the Middle East conflict still a headwind, tempering the bullish read-through.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted EPS of $1.61 beat consensus of $1.16 by 39.4%
- Adjusted EBITDA of $183.4M increased 24.7% YoY, with margins up 260 bps
- Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $615-635M from $610M low-end
- Quarterly dividend increased 10.7% to $0.62/share (Class A)
- New $150M share repurchase plan authorized
- Leverage ratio reduced to 1.1x from 3.1x YoY
- Net sales of $1.1656B were up 3.5% YoY, but roughly flat vs consensus of $1.09B
- CEO stated no demand inflection and Middle East conflict continues to weigh on industrial activity
Financial Impact
Adjusted EPS beat by $0.45 (39.4%) vs consensus; Adjusted EBITDA beat prior guidance low-end by ~$5M at midpoint; dividend +10.7%
Risk Factors
- Ongoing Middle East conflict continues to pressure industrial demand and resin costs
- Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment saw net sales decline 6.5% YoY and Adjusted EBITDA decline 12.9%
- Operating cash flow decreased to $77.8M from $147.1M YoY due to strategic inventory build
- RISI index has not yet recognized the June $60/ton URB price increase, creating uncertainty in fiber margins
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-051320 |
| Document: gef2026q38-kerex992.htm | 0001628280-26-051320 |
| Document: gef-20260731.htm | 0001628280-26-051320 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-051320-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-051320 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-051320-index.html | 0001628280-26-051320 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-051320.txt | 0001628280-26-051320 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-051320 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 25, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $84.63 | awaiting T+60 | — | $82.75 (−2.22%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $87.53 | awaiting T+60 | — | $82.75 (−5.46%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $87.53 | awaiting T+60 | — | $82.75 (−5.46%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $87.41 | awaiting T+60 | — | $82.75 (−5.33%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $90.12 | awaiting T+60 | — | $82.75 (−8.18%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $90.12 | awaiting T+60 | — | $82.75 (−8.18%) |
Jul 31, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $86.55 $82.75 | ▼ −4.39% | ▼ −6.85% | $82.75 (−4.39%) |
Jun 2, 2026 20w ago | Press Release | $63.46 $85.51 | ▲ +34.75% | ▲ +33.63% | $82.75 (+30.40%) |
Apr 28, 2026 25w ago | Press Release | $65.44 $78.62 | ▼ −20.14% | ▼ −16.03% | $82.75 (−26.45%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | Press Release | $66.68 $76.32 | ▲ +14.46% | ▲ +9.68% | $82.75 (+24.10%) |
US Market Status
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