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F-1 ·Filed Sep 21, 2026

GCDT

Green Circle Decarbonize Technology Ltd
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001493152-26-043505
Foreign IPO registration
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The massive potential dilution from this resale registration, combined with the company's accumulated deficit, customer concentration (95% from two customers), and the CEO's super-voting control, creates a toxic capital structure. Monitor for conversion notices and warrant exercises, which will accelerate dilution. The $10M note matures Jan 16, 2027 — if unconverted, the company must repay with 20% interest, which appears unlikely given its cash position.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
GCDT ▼ -87.36% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +87.36% · α vs SPY +86.46% · entry $0.3680 → $0.0465
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 21, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-7.45%
call +7.45% · α +7.43%
$0.3406
settled 5w ago
T+5d
+30.63%
call -30.63% · α -31.64%
$0.4807
settled 29d ago
T+20d
-87.36%
call +87.36% · α +86.46%
$0.0465
settled 8d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7w

Executive Summary

This F-1 registration statement registers up to 447,004,635 Class A ordinary shares for resale by the selling shareholder, Target Capital 1, LLC, which are issuable upon conversion of a $10M convertible note and exercise of warrants from a July 2026 private placement. The company is a Cayman Islands holding company with operations through a Hong Kong subsidiary, providing phase-change material thermal energy storage solutions, and has a dual-class share structure with 97.79% voting control held by CEO Chan Kam Biu Richard. The filing is a routine resale registration that does not raise new capital for the company, but the massive potential dilution (up to 447M shares vs 7.2M Class A shares outstanding) and the heavily dilutive terms of the convertible note and warrants represent a significant bearish signal.

Key Facts

  • Registers up to 447,004,635 Class A ordinary shares for resale by Target Capital 1, LLC, consisting of 182,016,746 Note Shares and 264,987,889 Common Warrant Shares
  • Shares are issuable upon conversion of a $10M unsecured convertible promissory note (20% OID, matures Jan 16, 2027) and exercise of warrants (initial exercise price $2.00, expiring July 16, 2028)
  • Company has only 7,191,205 Class A shares and 6,360,000 Class B shares outstanding as of the prospectus date
  • Stock closed at $0.38 on Sept 18, 2026, down from IPO price of $4.00 in January 2026
  • CEO Chan Kam Biu Richard controls 97.79% of voting power through Class B shares (50 votes each)
  • Operating subsidiary had an accumulated deficit as of March 31, 2026 and cannot distribute cash to the parent
  • Company is an emerging growth company and foreign private issuer
  • No VIE structure, but relies on third-party manufacturer in Mainland China under Sept 8, 2026 strategic partnership
  • Auditor ZH CPA, LLC is PCAOB-inspected and based in Denver, CO — not subject to HFCA Act delisting risk

Financial Impact

Potential dilution of up to 447M new shares vs 7.2M Class A shares currently outstanding — a ~62x increase in share count. The $10M convertible note has a conversion floor price of $0.1099 and contains ratchet provisions that could lower it further. The warrants have an initial exercise price of $2.00 but contain full-ratchet anti-dilution and periodic price-adjustment mechanisms that could reduce it to $0.1099.

dilutionshare countvoting powerliquidity

Risk Factors

  • Extreme dilution: up to 447M new shares could be issued vs 7.2M Class A shares outstanding
  • Convertible note has ratchet provisions that lower conversion price on dilutive issuances and periodic six-month adjustments
  • Warrants have full-ratchet anti-dilution and periodic price adjustments that could reduce exercise price to $0.1099
  • Equity Purchase Agreement allows selling shareholder to buy up to $100M of stock at market-discounted prices
  • Operating subsidiary cannot distribute cash to parent due to accumulated deficit
  • Customer concentration: 95% of FY2026 revenue from two customers (HAECO and Macau University Hospital)
  • CEO controls 97.79% voting power — minority shareholders have no meaningful influence
  • Stock down ~90% from $4.00 IPO price to $0.38 in 8 months

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
F-1 Filing (Primary)0001493152-26-043505
Exhibit: ex5-1.htm0001493152-26-043505
Exhibit: ex107.htm0001493152-26-043505
Exhibit: ex23-1.htm0001493152-26-043505
Document: 0001493152-26-043505-index-headers.html0001493152-26-043505
Document: 0001493152-26-043505-index.html0001493152-26-043505
Document: 0001493152-26-043505.txt0001493152-26-043505
20 reports for GCDT
Performance horizon
88% Hit rate @ T+1 7 of 8 directional calls Went positive at some point 8 of 8 best @ T+20▲ +94.16%Sep 23, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GCDT — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 26, 2026
today
SC 13G
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.1411awaiting T+1—$0.1550 (+9.85%)
Oct 26, 2026
today
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.1453awaiting T+1—$0.1550 (+6.68%)
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.1785 $0.1840▲ +3.08%▲ +4.26%$0.1550 (−13.17%)
Oct 15, 2026
11d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.3300 $0.2700▲ +18.18%▲ +17.08%$0.1550 (+53.03%)
Oct 15, 2026
11d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.3300 $0.2700▼ −18.18%▼ −17.08%$0.1550 (−53.03%)
Oct 14, 2026
12d ago
F-1
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.3300 $0.2700▲ +18.18%▲ +17.08%$0.1550 (+53.03%)
Oct 6, 2026
20d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.2350 $0.1212▼ −48.44%▼ −48.20%$0.1550 (−34.04%)
Oct 6, 2026
21d ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.2350 $0.1212▲ +48.44%▲ +48.20%$0.1550 (+34.04%)
Sep 30, 2026
26d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$3.10 $2.68▼ −13.54%▼ −13.72%$0.1550 (−95.00%)
Sep 30, 2026
26d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.5170 $0.4465▼ −13.64%▼ −13.81%$0.1550 (−70.02%)
Showing 10 of 20

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Report published Sep 21, 2026