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EFFECT ·Filed Oct 6, 2026

GCDT

Green Circle Decarbonize Technology Ltd
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed20d 20h ago SEC9999999995-26-003154
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The selling shareholder can now immediately begin selling into the market. Monitor daily volume and price action for signs of distribution. The massive share count overhang (~447M shares) relative to the $0.38 closing price suggests sustained selling pressure. Watch for any subsequent 8-K or prospectus supplement disclosing actual sales.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
GCDT ▼ -70.21% at T+5d
SHORT call ✓ call won +70.21% · α vs SPY +70.07% · entry $0.2350 → $0.0700
Next anchor: T+20d in 7d
Latest observation: T+7 +73.62% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 6, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-48.44%
call +48.44% · α +48.20%
$0.1212
settled 20d ago
T+5d
-70.21%
call +70.21% · α +70.07%
$0.0700
settled 14d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 7d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective the F-1 registration statement (File No. 333-299036) for Green Circle Decarbonize Technology Ltd on October 5, 2026. This effectiveness allows the selling shareholder to resell up to 182,016,746 Class A ordinary shares underlying a convertible note and up to 264,987,889 Class A ordinary shares underlying warrants from a July 2026 private placement. The company will not receive proceeds from the resale, but the registration removes a key overhang and enables the selling shareholder to monetize positions, creating significant potential dilution for existing common shareholders.

Key Facts

  • Effectiveness date: October 5, 2026, for F-1 registration statement File No. 333-299036.
  • Registration covers resale of up to 182,016,746 Class A ordinary shares (Note Shares) upon conversion of an unsecured 20% OID convertible promissory note from July 2026 private placement.
  • Registration also covers resale of up to 264,987,889 Class A ordinary shares (Common Warrant Shares) upon exercise of warrants from the same July 2026 private placement.
  • Total potential dilution: up to 446,999,635 Class A ordinary shares (Note Shares + Common Warrant Shares).
  • Company receives no proceeds from the resale; only receives proceeds if warrants are exercised for cash.
  • Closing price on September 18, 2026, was $0.38 per share.
  • The company is a Cayman Islands holding company with operations through a Hong Kong subsidiary and a third-party manufacturer in Mainland China.

Financial Impact

Up to 446,999,635 Class A ordinary shares eligible for resale, representing massive potential dilution relative to current float. At $0.38/share, the combined notional value is approximately $169.9 million.

dilutionshare pricemarket capitalization

Risk Factors

  • Massive dilution risk: up to 447M new shares could enter the market, potentially overwhelming demand.
  • Selling shareholder may sell aggressively, depressing the stock price.
  • No company proceeds from resale — no offsetting capital infusion.
  • Cayman Islands holding company structure with China-related operational risks adds regulatory uncertainty.

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-003154
Document: 9999999995-26-003154-index.html9999999995-26-003154
Document: 9999999995-26-003154.txt9999999995-26-003154
20 reports for GCDT
Performance horizon
88% Hit rate @ T+1 7 of 8 directional calls Went positive at some point 8 of 8 best @ T+20▲ +94.16%Sep 23, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for GCDT — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 26, 2026
today
SC 13G
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.1411awaiting T+1—$0.1760 (+24.73%)
Oct 26, 2026
today
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.1453awaiting T+1—$0.1760 (+21.13%)
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.1785 $0.1840▲ +3.08%▲ +4.26%$0.1760 (−1.40%)
Oct 15, 2026
11d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.3300 $0.2700▲ +18.18%▲ +17.08%$0.1760 (+46.67%)
Oct 15, 2026
11d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.3300 $0.2700▼ −18.18%▼ −17.08%$0.1760 (−46.67%)
Oct 14, 2026
12d ago
F-1
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.3300 $0.2700▲ +18.18%▲ +17.08%$0.1760 (+46.67%)
Oct 6, 2026
20d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.2350 $0.1212▼ −48.44%▼ −48.20%$0.1760 (−25.11%)
Oct 6, 2026
20d ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.2350 $0.1212▲ +48.44%▲ +48.20%$0.1760 (+25.11%)
Sep 30, 2026
26d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$3.10 $2.68▼ −13.54%▼ −13.72%$0.1760 (−94.33%)
Sep 30, 2026
26d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.5170 $0.4465▼ −13.64%▼ −13.81%$0.1760 (−65.96%)
Showing 10 of 20

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (12h 48m)

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Report published Oct 6, 2026