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EFFECT ·Filed May 14, 2026

FDMT

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed5mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001626
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight • Neutral

Monitor for any takedown announcement under the shelf, which would signal near-term dilution. The company's strong cash position suggests no urgency, but the shelf size relative to market cap means any offering could be meaningfully dilutive. Watch for clinical catalysts that could trigger capital needs.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
FDMT ▲ +13.56% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call +13.56% · α vs SPY +9.97% · entry $9.81 → $11.14
Entry = T+0 close
May 14, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-6.73%
call -6.73% · α -5.50%
$9.15
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
-11.42%
call -11.42% · α -10.70%
$8.69
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-9.99%
call -9.99% · α -9.13%
$8.83
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
+13.56%
call +13.56% · α +9.97%
$11.14
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective 4D Molecular Therapeutics' S-3 shelf registration (File No. 333-295650) on May 13, 2026, allowing the company to sell up to $400M in securities. The shelf replaces a prior expiring facility with $200M carried forward and $200M newly registered. With $458M cash on hand and runway into H2 2028, no immediate offering is expected, but the large size relative to the $546M market cap creates a persistent dilution overhang.

Key Facts

  • Shelf registration (S-3) declared effective May 13, 2026
  • Total shelf size: $400M ($200M carried forward + $200M newly registered)
  • Company had $458M cash and runway into H2 2028 as of the prior S-3 filing
  • No concurrent offering announced; shelf provides flexibility for future capital raises

Financial Impact

Potential dilution of up to ~73% of current market cap ($400M shelf vs $546M market cap) if fully utilized

dilutionshare count

Risk Factors

  • Future offering under the shelf could dilute existing shareholders significantly
  • Large shelf relative to market cap may overhang the stock even without an offering
  • Clinical-stage biotech may need to access capital markets if pipeline milestones are delayed

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
Analyst Consensus
82% bullish (17 analysts)

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-001626
Document: 9999999995-26-001626-index.html9999999995-26-001626
Document: 9999999995-26-001626.txt9999999995-26-001626
9 reports for FDMT
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+1 4 of 4 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 4 best @ T+20▲ +31.15%Jul 18, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for FDMT — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 22, 2026
4w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$15.00 $14.71▲ +1.93%▲ +1.85%$11.65 (+22.33%)
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$15.39 $15.72▲ +2.14%▲ +1.82%$11.65 (−24.30%)
Jul 20, 2026
14w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$11.09 $11.38▲ +2.57%▲ +1.74%$11.65 (+5.05%)
Jul 18, 2026
14w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$11.09 $11.38▲ +2.57%▲ +1.74%$11.65 (+5.05%)
Jul 5, 2026
16w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$12.72 $12.82▲ +0.79%▲ +1.26%$11.65 (−8.41%)
Jun 29, 2026
17w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$12.88 $13.30▲ +3.26%▲ +2.48%$11.65 (−9.55%)
May 14, 2026
23w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$9.81 $9.15▼ −6.73%▼ −5.50%$11.65 (+18.76%)
May 7, 2026
24w ago
S-3
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$10.14 $10.79▲ +6.41%▲ +6.18%$11.65 (+14.89%)
Mar 18, 2026
31w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$8.98 $8.61▼ −4.12%▼ −2.38%$11.65 (+29.73%)
Showing 9 of 9

US Market Status

Market Open — Closes in 3h 41m

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Report published May 14, 2026