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8-K ·Filed Oct 5, 2026

DSGR

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed22d 10h ago SEC0001193125-26-413150
8-K context-dependent: Items 7.01
Actionable Insight • Neutral

Monitor stockholder vote on the merger and conditions for the notes' escrow release. The estimated Q3 2026 revenue growth of ~9-10% and Adj. EBITDA margin expansion of ~40-90 bps YoY suggest improving operational momentum, but the 4.5x pro forma leverage signals near-term credit risk. Watch for definitive agreements on the near-term and additional potential acquisitions.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
DSGR ▲ +0.11% at T+5d
NEUTRAL call +0.11% · α vs SPY -0.31% · entry $35.02 → $35.06
Next anchor: T+20d in 6d
Latest observation: T+14 -13.40% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 5, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.09%
call +0.09% · α -0.46%
$35.05
settled 21d ago
T+5d
+0.11%
call +0.11% · α -0.31%
$35.06
settled 15d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 6d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

DSG filed an 8-K announcing a proposed $700M senior notes offering by an acquisition subsidiary to fund the take-private merger at $35.00/share, alongside an investor presentation detailing Q3 2026 estimated revenue of ~$564-572M (up ~9-10% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$55-59M. The filing also outlines a robust M&A pipeline with ~$44M AFC acquisition closed and ~$145M near-term target and ~$460-510M in additional potential acquisitions.

Key Facts

  • Proposed $700M aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2032 offered by Eclipse Acquisitions Merger Sub, Inc. to fund take-private merger at $35.00 per share for ~21% minority purchase.
  • TTM ended June 30, 2026 revenue of $2.05B and Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA of $195M.
  • Estimated Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of $564.0M to $572.0M, up ~9-10% YoY from $518.0M.
  • Estimated Q3 2026 consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $55.3M to $59.0M, up ~14-22% YoY from $48.5M.
  • Pro forma for the transaction, Total Net Leverage Ratio expected at 4.5x, with long-term target of 3.5x-4.0x.
  • AFC acquisition closed September 1, 2026 for ~$44M cash; near-term target acquisition expected for ~$145M.
  • Additional potential acquisitions in aggregate range of $460M to $510M.

Financial Impact

Proposed $700M senior notes offering plus $140M LKCM equity to fund $358M share acquisition, repay ~$195M Term Loan A, and add ~$211M cash to balance sheet. Pro forma total net leverage rises to 4.5x from 3.4x.

debtdilutioncashcash

Risk Factors

  • Failure to obtain requisite stockholder approval for the merger.
  • Escrow conditions not satisfied, preventing notes release and merger consummation.
  • Higher-than-expected leverage (4.5x) may constrain financial flexibility.
  • Integration risks from multiple concurrent acquisitions (AFC, near-term target and additional potential acquisitions).

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-413150
Document: d157566d8k.htm0001193125-26-413150
Document: d157566dex991.htm0001193125-26-413150
Document: 0001193125-26-413150-index-headers.html0001193125-26-413150
Document: 0001193125-26-413150-index.html0001193125-26-413150
Document: 0001193125-26-413150.txt0001193125-26-413150
17 reports for DSGR
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 3 of 5 best @ T+20▲ +0.66%Sep 1, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for DSGR — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 27, 2026
today
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$35.23awaiting T+20—$35.02 (−0.58%)
Oct 27, 2026
today
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$35.02awaiting T+20—$35.02 (+0.00%)
Oct 27, 2026
today
SC 13E-3/A
MIXED ★ 7/10
$35.00awaiting T+20—$35.02 (+0.06%)
Oct 20, 2026
7d ago
SC 13E-3/A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$35.05awaiting T+20—$35.02 (−0.09%)
Oct 14, 2026
13d ago
DEFA14A
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$35.09awaiting T+20—$35.02 (−0.20%)
Oct 14, 2026
13d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$35.09awaiting T+20—$35.02 (−0.20%)
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$35.07awaiting T+20—$35.02 (−0.14%)
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$35.07awaiting T+20—$35.02 (−0.14%)
Oct 5, 2026
22d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$35.02awaiting T+20—$35.02 (+0.00%)
Oct 5, 2026
22d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$35.02awaiting T+20—$35.02 (+0.00%)
Showing 10 of 17

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (15h 41m)

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Report published Oct 5, 2026