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8-K ·Filed Mar 30, 2026

DFDVW

DeFi Development Corp.
BEARISH
Impact 8/10
Horizonweeks Processed6mo ago SEC0001805526-26-000005
earnings-rerun-backfill
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Monitor for further dilution as the company's ability to raise capital accretively is severely impaired by mNAV compression. The significant guidance cut outweighs the revenue growth, indicating a deteriorating capital structure.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
DFDVW ▼ -52.71% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +52.71% · α vs SPY +65.09% · entry $0.5500 → $0.2601
Entry = T+0 close
Mar 30, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-9.09%
call +9.09% · α +9.84%
$0.5000
settled 7mo ago
T+5d
+1.82%
call -1.82% · α +2.13%
$0.5600
settled 7mo ago
T+20d
-6.60%
call +6.60% · α +16.02%
$0.5137
settled 6mo ago
T+60d
-52.71%
call +52.71% · α +65.09%
$0.2601
settled 4mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

DeFi Development Corp. reported +442% revenue growth for FY 2025, but revised its June 2026 Solana Per Share (SPS) guidance down sharply from 0.165 to 0.085 due to mNAV compression across the digital asset treasury space. This earnings beat is overshadowed by the significant guidance cut, which reflects deteriorating capital markets conditions and reduced fundraising capacity.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue
$9.2M
est $3.5M · +162.9% · +442.0% YoY

Key Facts

  • Reported +442% revenue growth for FY 2025, with Digital Asset Treasury segment generating $9.2M in revenue
  • Revised June 2026 SPS guidance from 0.165 to 0.085, a 48% reduction
  • mNAV (market value to net asset value) has fallen over 80% since July 2025 due to industry-wide compression
  • FY 2025 net loss of $(73.8)M, primarily from unrealized losses on digital assets
  • Recent S-3 shelf registration filed just 4 days prior, suggesting a distressed capital need

Financial Impact

Revenue grew from $1.67M to $9.2M (+442%), but guidance cut signals deteriorating fundamentals

revenueguidancemNAVdilution

Risk Factors

  • Severe mNAV compression limits future fundraising ability
  • High risk of further dilutive capital raises to fund operations
  • Unrealized losses on SOL holdings could worsen with crypto market volatility

Market Snapshot

Exchange
OTC
Sector
Finance Services

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001805526-26-000005
Document: dfdv-20260330.htm0001805526-26-000005
Document: dfdv-3302026xexx991.htm0001805526-26-000005
Document: 0001805526-26-000005-index-headers.html0001805526-26-000005
Document: 0001805526-26-000005-index.html0001805526-26-000005
Document: 0001805526-26-000005.txt0001805526-26-000005
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001805526-26-000005
3 reports for DFDVW
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for DFDVW — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Apr 28, 2026
25w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.5310 $0.3600▲ +32.20%▲ +36.19%$0.3240 (+38.98%)
Apr 17, 2026
27w ago
S-3
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.5840 $0.3501▼ −40.05%▼ −46.83%$0.3240 (−44.52%)
Mar 30, 2026
29w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.5500 $0.2601▲ +52.71%▲ +65.09%$0.3240 (+41.09%)
Showing 3 of 3

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Tue (17h 30m)

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Report published Apr 21, 2026