The strong beat on both revenue and EPS with expanding margins confirms CSX's operational momentum. Monitor the Q4 conference call for guidance on service recovery (dwell/trip plan deterioration) and whether fuel surcharge tailwinds persist. The 148% FCF surge supports continued buyback and dividend growth.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CSX reported record Q3 2026 revenue of $4.02B (+12% YoY) and diluted EPS of $0.57 (+54% YoY), beating consensus estimates of $0.52 by 9.7%. Operating margin expanded 880 bps to 39.1% driven by strong volume growth and cost controls, though fuel expense surged 60% YoY and service metrics deteriorated (dwell +12%, carload trip plan -12%).
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Record quarterly revenue of $4.02 billion, up 12% year-over-year
- Diluted EPS of $0.57, up 54% year-over-year (vs $0.44 adjusted prior year)
- Operating income of $1.57 billion, up 44% (or 25% vs adjusted prior year)
- Operating margin expanded 880 bps to 39.1% (vs 30.3% GAAP, 34.9% adjusted prior year)
- Total volume up 5% to 1.69 million units, with intermodal volume increasing 7%
- Fuel surcharge revenue nearly doubled to $466M (from $234M prior year)
- Free cash flow (9 months) of $2.648B, up 148% from $1.066B prior year
- Shares repurchased 11M shares for $543M in Q3 2026
Financial Impact
Revenue beat consensus by ~$60M (1.5%); EPS beat consensus by $0.05 (9.7%)
Risk Factors
- Fuel expense increased 60% YoY due to 67% higher locomotive fuel prices; any further spike could compress margins
- Service metrics deteriorated: dwell +12%, carload trip plan -12%, intermodal trip plan -11%
- Export coal volumes face potential headwinds from global demand shifts
- Automotive volumes declined 2% due to customer retooling outages
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000277948-26-000039 |
| Document: csx-20261021.htm | 0000277948-26-000039 |
| Document: pressrelease_q32026.htm | 0000277948-26-000039 |
| Document: 0000277948-26-000039-index-headers.html | 0000277948-26-000039 |
| Document: 0000277948-26-000039-index.html | 0000277948-26-000039 |
| Document: 0000277948-26-000039.txt | 0000277948-26-000039 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000277948-26-000039 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | Press Release | $51.67 | awaiting T+60 | — | $51.31 (−0.70%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $51.67 | awaiting T+60 | — | $51.31 (−0.70%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | Institutional Cluster | $48.40 | awaiting T+60 | — | $51.31 (+6.01%) |
Oct 13, 2026 14d ago | 8-K | $47.76 | awaiting T+60 | — | $51.31 (+7.43%) |
Sep 21, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $46.59 | awaiting T+60 | — | $51.31 (+10.13%) |
Jul 27, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $50.84 $48.40 | ▼ −4.80% | ▼ −9.15% | $51.31 (+0.92%) |
Jul 22, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $52.81 $48.69 | ▼ −7.80% | ▼ −12.35% | $51.31 (−2.84%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $45.92 $50.13 | ▲ +9.17% | ▲ +5.85% | $51.31 (+11.75%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | Press Release | $46.18 $50.75 | ▲ +9.91% | ▲ +4.99% | $51.31 (+11.12%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $46.18 $50.75 | ▲ +9.91% | ▲ +4.99% | $51.31 (+11.12%) |
US Market Status
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