The core adjusted EPS miss versus consensus, combined with a deteriorating operating ratio and elevated fuel costs, may pressure the stock near term. However, strong revenue growth and volume gains support the narrative of operational momentum. Watch for commentary on fuel cost mitigation and margin trajectory on the conference call.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CPKC reported Q3 2026 revenue of $4.2B, up 15% YoY, and core adjusted diluted EPS of $1.28, up 16% YoY, both above consensus estimates of $4.21B and $1.31 respectively. GAAP diluted EPS was $1.04, up 3% YoY, but the operating ratio deteriorated 130 bps to 64.8% due to higher fuel prices. The company stated it remains on track to meet its 2026 commitments.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 revenue of $4.2B, up 15% YoY from $3.7B
- Core adjusted diluted EPS of $1.28, up 16% YoY from $1.10
- GAAP diluted EPS of $1.04, up 3% YoY from $1.01
- Reported operating ratio worsened 130 bps to 64.8% from 63.5%
- Volumes (revenue ton-miles) increased 6% YoY
- Fuel prices unfavorably impacted reported OR by 170 bps and core adjusted OR by 190 bps
- Consensus EPS estimate was $1.31; actual GAAP diluted EPS was $1.04, a miss on GAAP basis
- Core adjusted diluted EPS of $1.28 was below the $1.31 consensus estimate
- Net income attributable to controlling shareholders was $917M, flat YoY
- Operating cash flow was $1.55B, up from $1.27B in Q3 2025
- Share repurchases totaled $1.487B in Q3 2026, buying 11.5M shares at avg $128.80
- Subsequent event: issued $1.8B in unsecured notes on October 6, 2026
Financial Impact
Revenue beat consensus by ~$10M; core adjusted EPS of $1.28 missed consensus of $1.31 by ~2.3%
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Grain | $904.0M | +28.8% |
| Coal | $254.0M | -0.4% |
| Potash | $182.0M | +9.0% |
| Fertilizers and sulphur | $105.0M | +2.9% |
| Forest products | $211.0M | +9.3% |
| Energy, chemicals and plastics | $763.0M | +8.8% |
| Metals, minerals and consumer products | $532.0M | +16.2% |
| Automotive | $373.0M | +8.8% |
| Intermodal | $815.0M | +22.0% |
Risk Factors
- Fuel price volatility continues to pressure margins and operating ratio
- CRA reassessment of prior year taxes resulted in a $94M income tax expense in Q3
- Mexican tax settlement of $17M in Q3; 2016-2019 tax years remain under dispute
- 2014 Mexican tax assessment of $528M remains in litigation
- Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.2x is elevated
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000016875-26-000031 |
| Document: cp-20261028.htm | 0000016875-26-000031 |
| Document: 0000016875-26-000031-index-headers.html | 0000016875-26-000031 |
| Document: 0000016875-26-000031-index.html | 0000016875-26-000031 |
| Document: 0000016875-26-000031.txt | 0000016875-26-000031 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000016875-26-000031 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2026 today | 8-K | $89.73 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $89.68 (−0.05%) |
Oct 28, 2026 2d ago | 8-K | No price | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | No price |
Oct 28, 2026 2d ago | Press Release | $88.37 $89.68 | ▲ +1.48% | ▲ +3.26% | $89.68 (+1.48%) |
Oct 28, 2026 2d ago | Press Release | $89.43 $88.37 | ▼ −1.19% | ▼ −0.80% | $89.68 (+0.28%) |
Oct 27, 2026 2d ago | Institutional Cluster | $89.43 $88.37 | ▼ −1.19% | ▼ −0.80% | $89.68 (+0.28%) |
Oct 21, 2026 9d ago | Institutional Cluster | $90.62 $89.51 | ▼ −1.22% | ▼ −0.70% | $89.68 (−1.04%) |
Oct 2, 2026 28d ago | Press Release | $85.94 $85.80 | ▲ +0.16% | ▲ +0.84% | $89.68 (−4.35%) |
Sep 28, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $86.51 $85.10 | ▼ −1.63% | ▼ −1.42% | $89.68 (+3.66%) |
Aug 21, 2026 10w ago | Court Ruling | $94.68 $94.34 | ▼ −0.36% | ▼ −0.68% | $89.68 (−5.28%) |
Jul 29, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $91.29 $88.16 | ▼ −3.43% | ▼ −5.11% | $89.68 (−1.76%) |
US Market Status
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