The Q1 results confirm the trough conditions management flagged in February. With guidance reaffirmed, the key catalyst is whether the North American Ag equipment market stabilizes in Q2-Q3 as expected. Watch for dealer inventory trends and any further tariff escalation. The stock is pricing in a 2027 recovery — any sign of delay would be incrementally bearish.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CNH reported Q1 2026 results that were in line with pre-announced expectations: consolidated revenues flat YoY at $3.83B, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.01 (vs $0.10 in Q1 2025), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.01. The Agriculture segment saw adjusted EBIT collapse 81% to $27M on a 1.0% margin, while Construction posted a -$28M adjusted EBIT loss. Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, including adjusted diluted EPS of $0.35-$0.45. The stock will move on the severity of the earnings decline and whether the trough narrative holds, but the numbers themselves are deeply negative.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.01, down from $0.10 in Q1 2025 (a 90% decline)
- Consolidated revenues flat YoY at $3.83B; Net Sales of Industrial Activities flat at $3.17B
- Adjusted EBIT of Industrial Activities swung to -$45M from +$101M in Q1 2025
- Agriculture adjusted EBIT fell 81% to $27M; Construction adjusted EBIT was -$28M
- Free cash flow absorption of Industrial Activities was -$589M, worse than -$567M in Q1 2025
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: Adj. diluted EPS $0.35-$0.45; Industrial FCF $150M-$350M
- Tariff impact on Construction margins revised to ~600 bps from original ~500 bps
- Receivables >30 days past due rose to 3.5% from 2.3% a year ago, driven by South America
Financial Impact
Net income collapsed 92% YoY to $10M; adjusted net income down 84% to $21M. Industrial Activities swung from $101M adjusted EBIT profit to a $45M loss.
Risk Factors
- Further deterioration in North American large tractor demand (down 27% YoY)
- Tariff escalation on Section 232 component parts and Section 301 investigation could widen margin headwinds
- Rising delinquencies in Financial Services (3.5% vs 2.3% a year ago) signal farmer stress in South America
- Negative free cash flow absorption of -$589M in Q1 pressures liquidity
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001567094-26-000009 |
| Document: q12026final.htm | 0001567094-26-000009 |
| Document: cnhi-20260430.htm | 0001567094-26-000009 |
| Document: 0001567094-26-000009-index-headers.html | 0001567094-26-000009 |
| Document: 0001567094-26-000009-index.html | 0001567094-26-000009 |
| Document: 0001567094-26-000009.txt | 0001567094-26-000009 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001567094-26-000009 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | Press Release | $11.54 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.15 (−3.38%) |
Sep 21, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $13.67 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.15 (−18.43%) |
Sep 16, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $13.52 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.15 (−17.53%) |
Aug 3, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $10.80 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.15 (+3.24%) |
May 18, 2026 23w ago | 3 | $10.40 $10.73 | ▲ +3.18% | ▼ −1.67% | $11.15 (+7.22%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $10.61 $11.08 | ▼ −4.45% | ▼ −1.35% | $11.15 (−5.11%) |
Mar 25, 2026 30w ago | DEFA14A | $10.96 $10.04 | ▼ −8.44% | ▼ −22.39% | $11.15 (+1.73%) |
US Market Status
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