The sequential earnings decline and NPL uptick are borrower-specific, but the narrowed NCO guidance (80-90 bps) and slower loan growth outlook suggest credit normalization is underway. Watch Q4 for deposit cost trajectory and whether the new CEO's strategy alters capital return pace.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Popular, Inc. reported Q3 2026 EPS of $4.21, a 1.2% beat vs consensus of $4.16, but net income fell 4% sequentially to $266M. Net interest income rose modestly to $699M, while NIM compressed 3 bps to 3.63% and operating expenses increased 4% QoQ. The company narrowed FY2026 NCO guidance to 80-90 bps (from 65-80 bps) and loan growth to 2% (from low-end of 3-4%), signaling credit normalization and slower balance sheet expansion.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 EPS $4.21 vs consensus $4.16 (1.2% beat); net income $266M, down 4% from Q2 2026's $278M
- Net interest income $699M, +$6M QoQ; NIM fell 3 bps to 3.63% on higher deposit costs (1.64%, +7 bps)
- Operating expenses $506M, +4% QoQ, driven by personnel costs (+$16M) on merit increases and profit-sharing
- NPLs increased $53M to $466M (1.16% ratio vs 1.04% in Q2) on a $74M commercial relationship inflow
- NCO ratio improved to 0.73% from 1.05% in Q2, reflecting lower commercial charge-offs
- FY2026 guidance updated: NII ~8.5% increase (unchanged), NCOs 80-90 bps (from 65-80 bps), loan growth 2% (from 3-4%)
- Capital returned $236M in Q3: $179M in buybacks + $57M in dividends; new $1B buyback authorization in place
- Tangible book value per share fell $1.64 to $86.30 on higher AFS unrealized losses
Financial Impact
Net income $266M, EPS $4.21, NII $699M, NIM 3.63%, NCO ratio 0.73%, ACL $771M (1.92% of loans)
Risk Factors
- Higher deposit costs pressuring NIM if P.R. public deposit rates continue to rise
- Commercial NPL inflows remain elevated; further borrower-specific charge-offs could pressure ACL
- Slower loan growth (2% FY guidance) limits revenue expansion in a stable rate environment
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000763901-26-000022 |
| Document: bpop-20261022.htm | 0000763901-26-000022 |
| Document: q326investorpresentation.htm | 0000763901-26-000022 |
| Document: 0000763901-26-000022-index-headers.html | 0000763901-26-000022 |
| Document: 0000763901-26-000022-index.html | 0000763901-26-000022 |
| Document: 0000763901-26-000022.txt | 0000763901-26-000022 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000763901-26-000022 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $159.24 | awaiting T+20 | — | $159.19 (−0.03%) |
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $157.64 | awaiting T+20 | — | $159.19 (+0.98%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | Institutional Cluster | $162.25 | awaiting T+20 | — | $159.19 (−1.89%) |
Aug 20, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $168.22 $162.03 | ▼ −3.68% | ▼ −3.68% | $159.19 (−5.37%) |
Aug 11, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $174.84 $164.80 | ▲ +5.74% | ▲ +4.68% | $159.19 (+8.95%) |
Aug 11, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $174.84 $164.80 | ▲ +5.74% | ▲ +4.68% | $159.19 (+8.95%) |
Aug 6, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $176.14 $171.33 | ▼ −2.73% | ▼ −3.33% | $159.19 (−9.62%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $170.88 $168.22 | ▼ −1.56% | ▼ −4.86% | $159.19 (−6.84%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | Insider Cluster | $149.62 $149.70 | ▲ +0.05% | ▼ −4.91% | $159.19 (+6.40%) |
Mar 24, 2026 31w ago | DEFA14A | $132.60 $148.30 | ▲ +11.84% | ▲ +2.94% | $159.19 (+20.05%) |
US Market Status
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