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Institutional Cluster

AXTI

AXT INC
BULLISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago
Institutional cluster: 20 buyers, 9 sellers (bullish)
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

20 institutional buyers accumulated $490.2M in AXTI during Q2 2026, while 9 sellers reduced by $120M, resulting in a net bullish conviction. The buying is dominated by mega-passive funds (Geode, Schwab, Northern Trust) and quant funds (Citadel, D.E. Shaw) doubling positions, alongside new stakes from Capital World Investors ($24.7M) and Vanguard Portfolio Management ($126.7M). The selling is concentrated among mega-passive trims (Morgan Stanley -$38.1M, UBS -$15.3M) and two full exits (Private Advisor Group, Imc-Chicago). The cluster's signal is weakened by the passive-heavy buyer composition and the absence of insider buying (confluence score 25/100, divergent). The cross-filing actuarial verdict flags an amplifier (inst-earnings-context + inst-offering-context), but given the passive-dominated cluster and lack of insider corroboration, the standalone signal is moderate.

DirectionBullish
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
AXTI ▲ +12.99% at T+20d
LONG call ✓ call won +12.99% · α vs SPY +13.52% · entry $70.74 → $79.93
Next anchor: T+60d in 20d
Latest observation: T+44 +45.77% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 21, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-7.55%
call -7.55% · α -7.25%
$65.40
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-17.12%
call -17.12% · α -17.59%
$58.63
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
+12.99%
call +12.99% · α +13.52%
$79.93
settled 5w ago
T+60d
Pending
in 20d

Executive Summary

20 institutional buyers accumulated $490.2M in AXTI during Q2 2026, while 9 sellers reduced by $120M, resulting in a net bullish conviction. The buying is dominated by mega-passive funds (Geode, Schwab, Northern Trust) and quant funds (Citadel, D.E. Shaw) doubling positions, alongside new stakes from Capital World Investors ($24.7M) and Vanguard Portfolio Management ($126.7M). The selling is concentrated among mega-passive trims (Morgan Stanley -$38.1M, UBS -$15.3M) and two full exits (Private Advisor Group, Imc-Chicago). The cluster's signal is weakened by the passive-heavy buyer composition and the absence of insider buying (confluence score 25/100, divergent). The cross-filing actuarial verdict flags an amplifier (inst-earnings-context + inst-offering-context), but given the passive-dominated cluster and lack of insider corroboration, the standalone signal is moderate.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$609.9M
Sell Value
$120.0M
Net Flow
$370.2M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $370.2M

▲ Buyers (20)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Vanguard Portfolio ManagementNEW+0%$126.7M$126.7M
D.E. ShawDOUBLED+189.9%$162.2M$118.0M
GeodeDOUBLED+195.4%$125.2M$91.7M
CitadelDOUBLED+160%$106.8M$74.3M
Capital World InvestorsNEW+0%$24.7M$24.7M

▼ Sellers (9)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
Morgan StanleyTRIM-57.6%$82.3M-$38.1M
Imc-ChicagoEXIT-100%$26.0M-$26.0M
UBSTRIM-40.4%$62.5M-$15.3M
Private Advisor GroupEXIT-100%$12.8M-$12.8M
Assenagon Asset ManagementTRIM-32%$85.8M-$12.0M

Key Facts

  • 20 institutional buyers accumulated $490.2M in AXTI during Q2 2026
  • 9 sellers reduced holdings by $120M, net inflow of ~$370M
  • Top buyers: Vanguard Portfolio Mgmt (NEW $126.7M), D.E. Shaw (DOUBLED +$118M), Geode (DOUBLED +$91.7M), Citadel (DOUBLED +$74.3M)
  • Top sellers: Morgan Stanley (TRIM -$38.1M), Imc-Chicago (EXIT -$26.0M), Private Advisor Group (EXIT -$12.8M)
  • No open-market insider buying — confluence score 25/100 (divergent)
  • 82% of analysts rate the stock Buy/Strong Buy; market cap $4.8B

Financial Impact

Net institutional inflow of ~$370M (buyers $490.2M vs sellers $120M) during Q2 2026

institutional_ownershipfloat_turnover

Risk Factors

  • 45-day 13F reporting lag means positions may have been unwound since quarter-end
  • Buyer composition is dominated by passive/index funds (Geode, Schwab, Northern Trust) — weaker signal than active manager cluster
  • No insider buying corroboration (confluence score 25/100, divergent)

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Semiconductors & Related Devices
Analyst Consensus
82% bullish (11 analysts)

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-AXTI-2026-Q2
25 reports for AXTI
Performance horizon
69% Hit rate @ T+5 9 of 13 directional calls Went positive at some point 12 of 13 best @ T+60▲ +47.25%Apr 21, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for AXTI — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 5, 2026
22d ago
SC 13G/A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$86.66 $61.98▼ −28.48%▼ −28.90%—
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$70.74 $58.63▼ −17.12%▼ −17.59%—
Aug 19, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$73.15 $66.92▼ −8.52%▼ −9.63%—
Jul 22, 2026
13w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$52.93 $46.94▼ −11.32%▼ −11.79%—
Jul 8, 2026
15w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$60.12 $57.57▼ −4.24%▼ −5.10%—
Jul 2, 2026
16w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$56.62 $62.55▲ +10.47%▲ +9.54%—
Jun 22, 2026
18w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$77.91 $71.46▼ −8.28%▼ −9.29%—
Jun 17, 2026
18w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$92.11 $70.14▼ −23.85%▼ −22.81%—
Jun 10, 2026
19w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$88.34 $92.11▼ −4.27%▼ −3.83%—
Jun 9, 2026
19w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$85.29 $93.04▲ +9.09%▲ +5.65%—
Showing 10 of 25

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Report published Aug 21, 2026