The headline GAAP EPS miss vs consensus will pressure the stock near-term, but the underlying operational strength (record EBITDA, revenue, and cash flow) and maintained guidance provide a floor. Watch for the May 7 conference call for commentary on hedge unwinding and Q2 production trajectory at MSG. The dividend increase and Era Dorada approval are medium-term catalysts.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Aura Minerals reported Q1 2026 results with record net revenue of $382.6M (+136% YoY) and record adjusted EBITDA of $243.9M (+199% YoY), driven by higher gold prices and production from Borborema and MSG. However, GAAP EPS was -$0.23, a 110.6% miss vs consensus of $2.18, due to non-cash mark-to-market losses on gold hedges and realized hedge losses. The stock will likely move on the disconnect between strong operational cash flow and the headline EPS miss, with guidance maintained.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Record Q1 2026 net revenue of $382.6M, up 136% YoY and 19% QoQ
- Record adjusted EBITDA of $243.9M, up 199% YoY and 17% QoQ
- GAAP net income of $95.2M vs net loss of $73.2M in Q1 2025
- GAAP EPS of -$0.23 vs consensus $2.18 (110.6% miss) due to $24.1M unrealized and $33.3M realized gold hedge losses
- Adjusted net income of $109.5M, up 307% YoY
- Total production of 82,137 GEO, up 37% YoY; on track for 2026 guidance of 340k-390k GEO
- Record quarterly dividend of ~$65M ($0.78/share) announced
- Net debt/EBITDA improved to 0.16x from 0.88x a year ago
- Era Dorada project approved with $382M capex, expected to start H1 2028
Financial Impact
Record revenue and EBITDA driven by gold price surge; GAAP EPS miss of $2.41 vs consensus due to non-cash hedge losses
Risk Factors
- Gold price volatility and hedge losses could continue to distort GAAP earnings
- MSG turnaround costs and production delays may weigh on H1 2026 results
- Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso appreciation pressuring costs
- Era Dorada capex of $382M adds execution risk
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3289522 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 9, 2026 17d ago | 6-K | $91.26 $91.80 | ▲ +0.59% | ▲ +0.65% | $77.13 (−15.48%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | SC 13G/A | $82.02 $82.49 | ▲ +0.57% | ▲ +1.00% | $77.13 (−5.96%) |
Oct 2, 2026 24d ago | 6-K | $81.95 $85.17 | ▲ +3.93% | ▲ +3.25% | $77.13 (−5.88%) |
Oct 2, 2026 24d ago | Press Release | $81.95 $85.17 | ▲ +3.93% | ▲ +3.25% | $77.13 (−5.88%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | 6-K | $88.25 $89.15 | ▲ +1.02% | ▼ −0.53% | $77.13 (−12.60%) |
Sep 16, 2026 5w ago | 144 | $88.71 $88.25 | ▼ −0.52% | ▼ −0.40% | $77.13 (−13.05%) |
Aug 28, 2026 8w ago | 6-K | $83.58 $79.05 | ▼ −5.43% | ▼ −4.74% | $77.13 (−7.72%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $89.12 $84.53 | ▲ +5.15% | ▲ +4.92% | $77.13 (+13.45%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $89.12 $84.53 | ▲ +5.15% | ▲ +4.92% | $77.13 (+13.45%) |
Aug 26, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $89.12 $84.53 | ▲ +5.15% | ▲ +4.92% | $77.13 (+13.45%) |
US Market Status
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