The supply-demand imbalance for 2027-2028 is the key new variable — ASML is now explicitly undersupplied relative to customer demand, which supports multi-year revenue growth above prior capacity plans. Watch the Q4 earnings call for quantification of the capacity expansion plan and any update on the June 2027 Capital Markets Day where longer-term views will be refreshed.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
ASML reported record Q3 2026 total net sales of €11.7 billion (up 55% YoY from €7.5B) and net income of €5.0 billion (up 133% YoY from €2.1B), with gross margin expanding to 57.5% from 51.6% a year ago. The company guided Q4 2026 total net sales between €14.2B and €15.2B and raised full-year 2026 total net sales guidance to €44B-€45B with gross margin around 56%, while noting that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, driven by AI-related investment cycles.
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 total net sales of €11.7 billion, up from €7.5 billion in Q3 2025 (YoY +55%)
- Q3 2026 net income of €5.0 billion, up from €2.1 billion in Q3 2025 (YoY +133%)
- Q3 2026 gross margin of 57.5%, up from 51.6% in Q3 2025
- Q3 2026 EPS (basic) of €12.95, up from €5.49 in Q3 2025
- Full-year 2026 total net sales guidance raised to €44B-€45B with gross margin around 56%
- Q4 2026 total net sales expected between €14.2B and €15.2B with gross margin around 57%
- Company stated planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand; investigating capacity increases beyond previously planned 30%
- Purchased ~€4.1 billion in shares under the 2026-2028 buyback program in Q3
- Interim dividend of €1.88 per ordinary share payable November 4, 2026
- New lithography systems sold: 121 units in Q3 2026 vs 72 in Q3 2025
Financial Impact
Record quarterly revenue and net income with strong beat vs prior year; raised full-year guidance by ~€2B at midpoint; supply constraints indicate multi-year demand visibility well above current capacity plans
Risk Factors
- Export control restrictions (especially China-related) could limit addressable market and license availability
- Macroeconomic or geopolitical disruption could cause customer order cancellations or push-outs despite current visibility
- Execution risk on capacity expansion beyond the previously planned 30% increase
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| Document: financial_statementsxusx.htm | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| Document: a2026_10x14xpresentation.htm | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| Document: form6-kquarterlyfilings.htm | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-065813-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-065813-index.html | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-065813.txt | 0001628280-26-065813 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | Press Release | $1,647.12 | awaiting T+60 | — | $1,601.97 (−2.74%) |
Oct 14, 2026 12d ago | 6-K | $1,650.00 | awaiting T+60 | — | $1,601.97 (−2.91%) |
Sep 28, 2026 28d ago | Press Release | $1,771.41 | awaiting T+60 | — | $1,601.97 (−9.57%) |
Sep 21, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $1,711.32 | awaiting T+60 | — | $1,601.97 (−6.39%) |
Jul 15, 2026 14w ago | 6-K | $1,815.27 $1,769.79 | ▼ −2.51% | ▼ −5.04% | $1,601.97 (−11.75%) |
Jul 15, 2026 14w ago | Press Release | $1,815.27 $1,769.79 | ▼ −2.51% | ▼ −5.04% | $1,601.97 (−11.75%) |
Jun 15, 2026 19w ago | Press Release | $1,892.66 $1,729.52 | ▼ −8.62% | ▼ −9.62% | $1,601.97 (−15.36%) |
Jun 1, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $1,628.57 $1,744.16 | ▲ +7.10% | ▲ +5.87% | $1,601.97 (−1.63%) |
Apr 28, 2026 25w ago | Press Release | $1,384.56 $1,803.00 | ▲ +30.22% | ▲ +26.23% | $1,601.97 (+15.70%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | Press Release | $1,440.51 $1,747.58 | ▲ +21.32% | ▲ +16.54% | $1,601.97 (+11.21%) |
US Market Status
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