The bullish initiation aligns with a strong consensus and improving EPS estimates, but the 55.8% short interest and upcoming earnings on May 18 create a binary event. Traders should watch for a short squeeze if earnings beat, but the lack of firm track record and micro-cap risk warrant caution.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Amerx initiated coverage on Arbe Robotics (ARBE) with a Buy rating and a $2.21 price target, representing 163% upside from the current $0.84 close. The call is a fresh bullish signal on a micro-cap radar technology name that already has 8 Buy ratings out of 10 analysts. Consensus mean target is $2.25, nearly identical to Amerx's PT, placing the firm in line with the Street. The only other rated firm with accuracy data, Canaccord Genuity, has a 50% hit rate on 2 calls and an average return of 22.9%, below the peer average. Momentum is positive: 1 upgrade (this initiation) and 0 downgrades in the last 30 days, with EPS estimates revised higher across all forward periods. Short interest is elevated at 55.8% of float, a potential squeeze catalyst if the stock gains traction. Insider and institutional data are absent, but the next earnings report is due May 18, 2026 — just 7 days away — adding near-term event risk. The bottom line: a high-upside initiation from a new covering firm, but the lack of track record and imminent earnings make this a speculative, event-driven play.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 2 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 80% Buy-equivalent ratings from 10 analysts. The consensus direction is strongly positive, with only 2 Hold ratings as dissent.
Current price: $0.84. Consensus mean PT: $2.25, median $2.00, high $3.50 (WestPark Capital), low $1.25 (Canaccord Genuity). Implied upside to mean: 168%. Amerx's $2.21 PT is nearly identical to the mean, placing it in line with consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Amerx | initiate | Buy | $2.21 |
| 2026-02-27 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Buy | $1.25 |
| 2026-01-08 | WestPark Capital | initiate | Buy | $3.50 |
| 2025-11-18 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Buy | $1.75 |
| 2025-04-01 | Canaccord Genuity | initiate | Buy | $1.75 |
| 2025-03-06 | Maxim Group | downgrade | Hold | — |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (this initiation), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive: all forward periods (next quarter, current year, next year) saw upward revisions in the last 7 and 30 days. Estimates are being revised higher.
Firm Track Record — Amerx
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 1 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity | 50% | 1/2 | 22.9% | below average |
Amerx has no recorded accuracy data on this ticker, so its track record is unknown. The only firm with data is Canaccord Genuity: 50% accuracy on 2 calls, with an average return of 22.9% (below the peer average). No best/worst firm comparison is possible due to limited data.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 18, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $-0.07 | $-0.07 — $-0.07 | $750.0K | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $-0.27 | $-0.27 — $-0.27 | $4.7M | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $-0.20 | $-0.26 — $-0.14 | $22.0M | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $-0.08 | $-0.08 — $-0.08 | $650.0K | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades, congressional trades, or institutional position changes reported. Short interest is 55.8% of float (673,856 shares short vs. 1.2M TRF volume), indicating heavy bearish positioning. This diverges from the bullish analyst signal — a potential squeeze setup if the stock rallies.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 13, 2026 13d ago | 6-K | $0.5000 $0.4671 | ▼ −6.58% | ▼ −7.03% | $0.4200 (−16.00%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | 25-NSE | $0.5921 $0.5000 | ▲ +15.55% | ▲ +14.57% | $0.4200 (+29.07%) |
Sep 28, 2026 28d ago | Press Release | $0.6076 $0.5976 | ▲ +1.65% | ▲ +3.59% | $0.4200 (+30.88%) |
Sep 28, 2026 28d ago | 6-K | $0.6000 $0.5910 | ▲ +1.50% | ▲ +2.70% | $0.4200 (+30.00%) |
Sep 28, 2026 28d ago | 424B5 | $0.6000 $0.5910 | ▲ +1.50% | ▲ +2.70% | $0.4200 (+30.00%) |
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $0.6350 $0.6126 | ▲ +3.53% | ▲ +3.31% | $0.4200 (+33.86%) |
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $0.7836 $0.6700 | ▼ −14.50% | ▼ −14.28% | $0.4200 (−46.40%) |
Sep 8, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $0.7431 $0.6917 | ▼ −6.92% | ▼ −5.80% | $0.4200 (−43.48%) |
Sep 4, 2026 7w ago | 6-K | $0.7431 $0.6917 | ▼ −6.92% | ▼ −5.80% | $0.4200 (−43.48%) |
Aug 12, 2026 10w ago | 6-K | $0.7680 $0.7491 | ▲ +2.46% | ▲ +0.50% | $0.4200 (+45.31%) |
US Market Status
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