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EFFECT ·Filed Sep 3, 2026

APVO

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizondays Processed1mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002871
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effective S-1 opens the door for a dilutive offering at any time. Given the $5M market cap and poor historical returns on APVO events, traders should expect near-term share price pressure. Monitor for a prospectus supplement (424B) to see the actual offering size and pricing — any raise above ~$1M would be highly dilutive.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
APVO ▲ +2.92% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -2.92% · α vs SPY -4.11% · entry $1.71 → $1.76
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Latest observation: T+35 -31.11% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 3, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.75%
call -1.75% · α -2.14%
$1.74
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+6.43%
call -6.43% · α -7.58%
$1.82
settled 7w ago
T+20d
+2.92%
call -2.92% · α -4.11%
$1.76
settled 25d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 5w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) filed an EFFECT notice on 2026-09-02, indicating that its S-1 registration statement (File No. 333-298483) has been declared effective by the SEC. This allows the company to proceed with a securities offering, which for a micro-cap biotech with a $5M market cap typically signals imminent dilution. The cross-filing actuarial verdict confirms this as an amplifier for the IPO-context + shelf-context combination, reinforcing the bearish dilution overhang for existing shareholders.

Key Facts

  • Aptevo Therapeutics' S-1 registration (File No. 333-298483) became effective on 2026-09-02.
  • The company can now sell securities under the 1933 Act, creating a potential dilution overhang.
  • Market cap is only $5M, making any offering size material relative to existing equity.

Financial Impact

Dilution from the now-effective S-1 offering; exact terms (size, price) are undisclosed but likely significant relative to the $5M market cap.

dilutionshare count

Risk Factors

  • Imminent dilutive offering could significantly reduce per-share value for existing holders.
  • Micro-cap biotech with no disclosed revenue or pipeline catalysts; offering proceeds may not be sufficient to reach key milestones.
  • Historical pattern of negative returns on APVO events suggests the market consistently prices in downside.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
86% bullish (7 analysts)

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002871
Document: 9999999995-26-002871-index.html9999999995-26-002871
Document: 9999999995-26-002871.txt9999999995-26-002871
11 reports for APVO
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+5 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 3 of 3 best @ T+60▲ +13.57%Mar 11, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for APVO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 26, 2026
1d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$1.73awaiting T+5—$1.28 (−26.09%)
Oct 23, 2026
3d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$1.61awaiting T+5—$1.28 (−20.50%)
Oct 14, 2026
13d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$1.73 $1.60▼ −7.51%▼ −7.97%$1.28 (−26.01%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$1.83 $1.76▼ −3.83%▼ −3.41%$1.28 (−30.05%)
Sep 3, 2026
7w ago
424B4 / 8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$1.71 $1.82▲ +6.43%▲ +7.58%$1.28 (−25.15%)
Sep 3, 2026
7w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$1.71 $1.82▼ −6.43%▼ −7.58%$1.28 (+25.15%)
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$2.94 $2.68▼ −8.84%▼ −7.48%$1.28 (−56.46%)
Jul 27, 2026
13w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$4.21 $3.95▼ −6.18%▼ −8.44%$1.28 (−69.60%)
Jun 30, 2026
16w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$4.45 $4.51▲ +1.35%▲ +1.09%$1.28 (−71.24%)
May 6, 2026
24w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$4.86 $4.76▼ −2.06%▼ −3.56%$1.28 (−73.66%)
Showing 10 of 11

US Market Status

Market Open — Closes in 7m

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Report published Sep 3, 2026