Monitor coal price trends and AMR's ability to secure pricing on the 47% uncommitted met volumes. The FY2025 financial deterioration (revenue -28%, Adj. EBITDA -70%) combined with FY2026 guidance suggesting continued margin pressure warrants caution. Watch for Q1 2026 earnings for actual pricing realization vs guidance assumptions.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) filed an 8-K with an investor presentation providing FY2026 guidance. The company guided for met segment shipments of 15.1-16.5 million tons, with 53% committed/priced at an average of $124.37/ton. Met segment cost per ton is guided at $95-$101. This is a routine investor update with no material new financial results or strategic changes.
Key Facts
- FY2026 met segment shipment guidance: 15.1-16.5 million tons
- 53% of met segment volumes committed/priced at average $124.37/ton as of April 29, 2026
- Met segment cost per ton guidance: $95.00-$101.00
- FY2026 capital expenditure guidance: $148-$168 million
- FY2026 SG&A guidance: $53-$59 million
- FY2026 cash tax rate guidance: 0%-5%
- Company repurchased ~7.0 million shares for ~$1.2 billion since program inception through April 30, 2026
- Outstanding shares reduced by ~32% since start of buyback program in March 2022
- FY2025 revenue was $2.1 billion, down from $3.0 billion in FY2024
- FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $122 million, down from $408 million in FY2024
- FY2025 net loss was $61.7 million vs net income of $187.6 million in FY2024
Financial Impact
FY2026 guidance implies continued weak earnings with met segment cost of $95-$101/ton vs average realized price of $124.37/ton on committed volumes, suggesting thin margins. FY2025 revenue declined 28% YoY to $2.1B and Adjusted EBITDA fell 70% to $122M.
Risk Factors
- Continued decline in met coal prices could further compress margins
- Only 53% of FY2026 met volumes are committed/priced, leaving significant exposure to spot price weakness
- FY2025 net loss of $61.7M and negative free cash flow of $20.4M signal financial strain
- Idle operations expense of $24-$32M guided for FY2026 indicates ongoing mine closures
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001704715-26-000019 |
| Document: amr-20260508.htm | 0001704715-26-000019 |
| Document: 0001704715-26-000019-index-headers.html | 0001704715-26-000019 |
| Document: 0001704715-26-000019-index.html | 0001704715-26-000019 |
| Document: 0001704715-26-000019.txt | 0001704715-26-000019 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | 8-K | $158.20 | awaiting T+5 | — | $164.68 (+4.10%) |
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | Press Release | $158.20 | awaiting T+5 | — | $164.68 (−4.10%) |
Aug 31, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $233.41 $226.94 | ▼ −2.77% | ▼ −2.85% | $164.68 (−29.45%) |
Aug 25, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $215.63 $233.41 | ▲ +8.25% | ▲ +8.78% | $164.68 (−23.63%) |
Aug 7, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $151.95 $166.05 | ▲ +9.28% | ▲ +8.88% | $164.68 (+8.38%) |
Aug 7, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $151.95 $166.05 | ▼ −9.28% | ▼ −8.88% | $164.68 (−8.38%) |
Jul 27, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $145.54 $137.16 | ▲ +5.76% | ▲ +6.83% | $164.68 (−13.15%) |
Jun 18, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $175.09 $165.25 | ▲ +5.62% | ▲ +3.55% | $164.68 (+5.95%) |
Jun 4, 2026 20w ago | Insider Cluster | $202.38 $200.82 | ▼ −0.77% | ▼ −1.34% | $164.68 (−18.63%) |
Jun 1, 2026 20w ago | 144 | $215.37 $202.38 | ▼ −6.03% | ▼ −3.28% | $164.68 (−23.54%) |
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