The Strong Buy initiation adds to a bullish consensus, but the lack of upward EPS revisions and recent insider selling create a mixed setup. Traders should watch for a catalyst (e.g., earnings beat) to break the divergence; the elevated short interest (63.7%) adds squeeze potential if the stock moves above $8.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Raymond James initiated coverage on Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) at Strong Buy with a $10 price target, implying 35% upside from the current $7.41. The firm's 54% accuracy on 1,636 calls and 3.4% average return place it in the middle tier among analysts covering AMPL. Consensus is heavily bullish: 13 of 17 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, with only 4 at Hold. The mean price target is $10.65, median $10, high $18, low $7. Raymond James's $10 target is slightly below the mean but in line with the median. The initiation comes amid a mixed backdrop: EPS estimates have been revised down 11 times in the last 30 days for the current quarter and fiscal year, while institutional buying from FMR and Wellington (both doubling positions) provides a bullish cross-current. Insider selling by the CTO and CFO in May-June 2026 is a cautionary signal, though not determinative. The bottom line: a fresh Strong Buy from a mid-tier firm adds bullish coverage breadth, but the lack of upward EPS revisions and recent insider sales temper conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 4 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 76% Buy/Strong Buy, 24% Hold, 0% Sell. 17 analysts cover the stock. The consensus direction is strongly bullish, and Raymond James's Strong Buy aligns with the majority view.
Mean price target is $10.65, median $10, high $18, low $7. Current price $7.41 implies 44% upside to the mean and 35% to the median. Raymond James's $10 target is at the median, slightly below the mean, and in line with the consensus median. The high target of $18 (from Morgan Stanley) is 143% above current, while the low of $7 (from B of A Securities) is 6% below current.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Raymond James | initiate | Strong Buy | $10.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | B of A Securities | downgrade | Neutral | $8.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $9.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $10.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $12.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | Keybanc | maintain | Overweight | $14.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | BTIG | maintain | Buy | $10.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $10.00 |
| 2026-02-03 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $12.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | Morgan Stanley | upgrade | Overweight | $16.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 1 upgrade (Raymond James initiation) and 0 downgrades. However, EPS revisions are uniformly negative: 0 upward revisions in the last 30 days across all periods, with 11 downward revisions for the current quarter and fiscal year. Estimates are being revised lower, creating a divergence between analyst ratings (bullish) and earnings momentum (bearish).
Firm Track Record — Raymond James
Raymond James accuracy: 54% on 1636 calls | avg return: 3.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 8 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | 100% | 2/2 | 33.4% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 75% | 3/4 | 8.8% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 4/6 | 0.4% | top tier |
| Baird | 50% | 3/6 | -3.7% | below average |
| Needham | 50% | 4/8 | 0.9% | below average |
| Piper Sandler | 50% | 4/8 | 0.7% | below average |
| UBS | 40% | 2/5 | -0.6% | below average |
| B of A Securities | 0% | 0/2 | -12.3% | below average |
Raymond James has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls with a 3.4% average return, placing it in the middle tier among firms covering AMPL. The best-performing firm on this stock is Scotiabank (100% on 2 calls, 33.4% avg return), followed by DA Davidson (75% on 4 calls, 8.8% avg return). The worst is B of A Securities (0% on 2 calls, -12.3% avg return). Raymond James's track record is average, not top-tier, for this ticker.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $0.14 | $0.07 — $0.19 | $462.0M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $-0.01 | $-0.02 — $-0.00 | $98.2M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $0.05 | $0.04 — $0.07 | $400.7M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.03 | $0.02 — $0.03 | $102.7M | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is notable: CFO Liu Curtis sold ~$504K in May-June 2026, and CTO Wong Catherine sold ~$51K in June. These are C-suite sales, which carry weight, but the pattern appears routine (multiple sales of similar size) and may be liquidity-driven. No congressional trades. Institutional activity is mixed but leans bullish: FMR LLC (+642%) and Wellington Management (+468%) both doubled positions, while Point72 trimmed 31% and Renaissance trimmed 42%. Short interest is elevated at 63.7% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if the stock rallies. The analyst signal (bullish) converges with institutional buying but diverges from insider selling and negative EPS revisions.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26, 2026 today | 144 | $17.30 | awaiting T+5 | — | $17.30 (−0.00%) |
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | 144 | $17.42 | awaiting T+5 | — | $17.30 (−0.69%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 8-K | $14.75 $17.42 | ▲ +18.10% | ▲ +18.53% | $17.30 (+17.29%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $13.37 $13.14 | ▲ +1.72% | ▲ +3.85% | $17.30 (−29.39%) |
Aug 8, 2026 11w ago | Institutional Cluster | $12.19 $12.61 | ▲ +3.45% | ▲ +3.49% | $17.30 (+41.92%) |
Jul 1, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $8.55 $9.16 | ▲ +7.13% | ▲ +6.87% | $17.30 (+102.34%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | 144 | $6.84 $6.46 | ▼ −5.56% | ▼ −4.17% | $17.30 (+152.92%) |
May 7, 2026 24w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $5.91 $5.98 | ▲ +1.18% | ▼ −0.32% | $17.30 (+192.72%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $5.91 $5.98 | ▲ +1.18% | ▼ −0.32% | $17.30 (+192.72%) |
Apr 24, 2026 26w ago | DEFA14A | $7.03 $8.04 | ▲ +14.37% | ▲ +13.97% | $17.30 (+146.09%) |
US Market Status
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