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EFFECT ·Filed Jul 13, 2026

AIIO

ROBO.AI INC.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizondays Processed3mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002251
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effectiveness opens the door for JAK Mobility Ventures II LLC to sell shares, creating immediate overhang. Monitor for Form 144 filings indicating actual sales and watch for volume spikes. Given the company's distressed financials and going concern warning, any selling pressure could accelerate the stock's decline.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
AIIO ▼ -71.75% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +71.75% · α vs SPY +75.74% · entry $4.00 → $1.13
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 13, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.25%
call +0.25% · α +0.61%
$3.99
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
-1.25%
call +1.25% · α +0.47%
$3.95
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
-20.50%
call +20.50% · α +23.68%
$3.18
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-71.75%
call +71.75% · α +75.74%
$1.13
settled 21d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective Robo.ai Inc.'s F-1 registration statement (File No. 333-296767) on July 10, 2026, allowing the resale of shares by JAK Mobility Ventures II LLC upon conversion of convertible notes. The company is in severe financial distress with FY2025 revenue of just $0.95M (down 92.1% YoY), a net loss of $167.6M, an accumulated deficit of $904.4M, and a going concern warning, making this resale registration a significant bearish overhang.

Key Facts

  • SEC declared effective F-1 registration (File No. 333-296767) on July 10, 2026.
  • Registration covers resale of shares by JAK Mobility Ventures II LLC upon conversion of convertible notes.
  • Prior F-1/A registered up to 22,343,750 Class B ordinary shares for resale.
  • Company reported FY2025 net revenue of $0.95M (down 92.1% YoY), net loss of $167.6M, accumulated deficit of $904.4M, and working capital deficit of $116.6M.
  • Auditor expressed substantial doubt about going concern.

Financial Impact

Potential dilution from resale of up to 22.3M shares (per amended registration) relative to $465M market cap; no new capital raised for the company.

dilutionshare price

Risk Factors

  • Dilution from resale of shares by JAK Mobility Ventures II LLC.
  • Company's going concern risk and weak financial position.
  • Potential Nasdaq delisting risk (company under monitoring period per prior filings).

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002251
Document: 9999999995-26-002251-index.html9999999995-26-002251
Document: 9999999995-26-002251.txt9999999995-26-002251
19 reports for AIIO
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+60 3 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 9 of 9 best @ T+60▲ +71.58%Jun 26, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for AIIO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 16, 2026
10d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.7401awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (+21.63%)
Oct 13, 2026
13d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$1.15awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−49.57%)
Oct 12, 2026
14d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.8609awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−32.63%)
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
6-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$1.09awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−46.79%)
Oct 6, 2026
20d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$1.13awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−48.67%)
Sep 26, 2026
4w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$1.39awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−58.27%)
Sep 10, 2026
6w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$1.79awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (+67.60%)
Sep 3, 2026
7w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.78awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−67.42%)
Sep 2, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$1.70awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (−65.88%)
Aug 31, 2026
8w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$2.05awaiting T+60—$0.5800 (+71.71%)
Showing 10 of 19

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (10h 4m)

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Report published Jul 13, 2026